Weekly Geopolitical Report

Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Venezuelan Migration Crisis: Part I (September 17, 2018)

by Bill O’Grady Venezuela has gone from “bad to worse” in recent years.  In 1999, Hugo Chavez was elected president and took the country on a journey into Cuba-style socialism.  Persistent government intrusion into the economy reduced private sector involvement.  Although the oil sector was able to generate enough revenue to allow Chavez to fund his… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Battle for Idlib (September 10, 2018)

by Bill O’Grady Two years ago, it looked as if Syrian President Bashar Assad was either about to be ousted from power or doomed to control an ever-shrinking area of Syria.  Islamic State, Kurds and various rebel groups controlled much of what once constituted Syria.  In fact, the frontier between Syria and Iraq was mostly a… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Turkey Crisis: Part II (August 27, 2018)

by Bill O’Grady (N.B. Due to the Labor Day holiday, the next report will be published on September 10.) Last week, we covered Turkey’s geopolitics and history.[1]  This week, we complete the series, starting with a discussion on Turkey’s economy with a focus on the changes brought by the Justice and Development Party (AKP), led by… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Turkey Crisis: Part I (August 20, 2018)

by Bill O’Grady Over the past few months, Turkey has become a major topic of interest.  Recep Erdogan won re-election to the presidency in June 2018.  This event was important because a referendum on a new constitution in 2017 gave the office of the president sweeping powers; the previous constitution was based on a parliamentary model… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – Iran Sanctions and Potential Responses: Part III (August 13, 2018)

by Bill O’Grady The Trump administration withdrew from the Iranian nuclear deal earlier this year and plans to implement sanctions on the country in two phases, the first of which went into effect in early August with a second round in November.  In Part I of this report, we introduced this topic and covered the first… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – Iran Sanctions and Potential Responses: Part II (August 6, 2018)

by Bill O’Grady Last week, we introduced the topic of the Trump administration’s decision to implement sanctions on Iran and covered two potential responses from Iran, which were restarting its nuclear program and projecting power.  This week, we will discuss the threat to the Strait of Hormuz. Response #3: Closing the Strait of Hormuz On its… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – Iran Sanctions and Potential Responses: Part I (July 30, 2018)

by Bill O’Grady In May, the Trump administration withdrew from the nuclear deal with Iran, officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).  The European participants (the other signatories were the U.K., Russia, France, Germany and China) tried to convince President Trump that leaving the pact would be a mistake, but President Trump has… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – Reflections on Politics and Populism: Part II (July 23, 2018)

by Bill O’Grady Last week, we defined important terms that shape the political alignments and examined the coalitions that mostly define the political sphere.[1]  This week, we make some general observations of how the coalitions interact, discuss the “natural” pairings of the coalitions and examine historical examples.  We will conclude with market ramifications. Observations There is… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – Reflections on Politics and Populism: Part I (July 16, 2018)

by Bill O’Grady The rise of populism and the preference for unconventional leaders are upending the world order that the U.S. created after WWII.  Accordingly, across the West, we are seeing a steady rejection of centrist, establishment parties.  Here are some of the changes we have observed recently: France: Emmanuel Macron was elected to the presidency… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Return of AMLO (July 9, 2018)

by Thomas Wash On July 1, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, or AMLO for short, became Mexico’s first leftist president in over three decades,[1] running on anti-establishment and anti-corruption platforms. The 64-year-old activist won with over 53% of the vote, the most since Mexico moved to a multi-party system.  For the first time in nearly a century,… Read More »

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