Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Archetypes of American Foreign Policy: A Reprise (November 13, 2023)
Bill O’Grady | PDF A critical issue in 2024 will be the U.S. presidential elections. America is going through a particularly partisan period where passing legislation is difficult and policy shifts between administrations are widening. Foreign policy isn’t exempt from these changes. In preparation for next year’s election, we wanted to update one of our… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Investment Implications of the Israel-Hamas Conflict (October 30, 2023)
Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF For investors, geopolitical risks today center on the Great Power competition involving countries like the United States, China, and Russia. Nevertheless, terrorism by non-state actors can still be destabilizing, as shown by the October 7 attacks on Israel by Hamas, the Palestinian terrorist group that controls the Gaza Strip. The… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – What Shall We Call the New Era? (October 16, 2023)
Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Whether you’re a policymaker, an investor, a small business owner, or simply a student of world history and international affairs, it’s useful to have meaningful labels for various epochs. Ideally, such a label is widely accepted and captures some essential aspect of the era you’re thinking about, making it easier… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Oil Weapon Returns (October 2, 2023)
Bill O’Grady | PDF Oil is arguably the most critical commodity. Although food is perhaps more essential to life, most food production today is dependent on fossil fuels. Daniel Yergin’s epic history of oil, The Prize,[1] examines who had oil, who needed oil, and what they did to secure it. Due to oil’s importance, there… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Goodbye Prigozhin (September 18, 2023)
Bill O’Grady | PDF On August 23, an executive jet carrying seven passengers and three crew members crashed near Moscow on a flight to St. Petersburg. Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner Group, a private Russian military company, was reportedly one of the passengers. Prigozhin was having an eventful summer. He had led an… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Reflections on the New Cold War (August 21, 2023)
Bill O’Grady | PDF Note: Due to the Labor Day holiday in two weeks, the next edition of this report will be published on September 18. Our geopolitical research over the past 15 years has had a consistent theme—that U.S. hegemony is under strain. Essentially, costs of America’s hegemonic role have become unbearable for the… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Economics of National Defense in Great Power Competition (August 7, 2023)
Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Tensions between the United States and China continue to worsen, with the two nations hurtling toward each other in a geopolitical game of chicken that, in a worst case scenario, could potentially end up in war. In the distance, a few possible off-ramps still hold promise, but the two powers… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – China’s Collapsing Population (July 24, 2023)
Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF In early 2020, we published a detailed, multi-part analysis of global demographic trends (see our Weekly Geopolitical Report from February 10, 2020). That report showed how falling birth rates and rising life expectancies have led to slower population growth, population aging, and weaker economic activity in countries ranging from China… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The 2023 Mid-Year Geopolitical Outlook: The Polycrisis (July 10, 2023)
Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF As is our custom, we update our geopolitical outlook for the remainder of the year as the first half comes to a close. This report is less a series of predictions as it is a list of potential geopolitical issues that we believe will dominate… Read More »