Weekly Geopolitical Report

Weekly Geopolitical Report – An Inflection Point in Lebanon (August 17, 2020)

by Bill O’Grady | PDF On the afternoon of August 4, there was a massive explosion at the Port of Beirut.  The explosion was one of the largest non-nuclear blasts in history, a seismic event with a magnitude of 3.3 on the Richter scale.  At latest count, 220 have been confirmed dead, 110 are missing,… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Evolving U.S. Policy Toward China and Its Impact on Investors (August 10, 2020)

by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Looking forward to the coming years and decades, today’s long-term investors face a stark question: will they be investing in a China-dominated world molded by authoritarian leaders in Beijing?  Or, will they be investing in a more familiar, Western-dominated environment reflecting the historic leadership of the U.S. and incorporating… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – Rethinking China: Part II (August 3, 2020)

by Bill O’Grady | PDF In Part I, we described China’s situation using Japan as a historical analog.  This week, we will complete the analogy and examine in some detail the potential motivations of Chinese and U.S. policymakers. As always, we will conclude the discussion with potential market ramifications. China’s Situation Similar to Japan in… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – Rethinking China: Part I (July 27, 2020)

by Bill O’Grady | PDF President and General Secretary Xi Jingping has changed the course of Chinese governance.  Deng Xiaoping Peng created a collective leadership model to prevent the rise of another Mao.  Leaders were carefully selected and surrounded by leading figures of the various factions of the Communist Party of China (CPC).  Term limits… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Threat of Militarization in Brazil (July 20, 2020)

by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF When investors think about Latin American politics and policy, the various countries’ military forces often come to mind.  You’d almost think the region was a hotbed of international aggression, invasions, and state-to-state warfare.  The reality is that for the last century, national military organizations in Central and South America… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – Why China and India Are Fighting (July 13, 2020)

by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF In a bizarre confrontation last month, Chinese and Indian soldiers fought a pitched battle in near total darkness high up in the Himalayan mountains.  If that wasn’t strange enough, the weapons used were merely fists, stones, police batons, and wooden clubs wrapped in barbed wire or studded with nails.… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Geopolitics of the Eurobond (June 29, 2020)

by Bill O’Grady | PDF (N.B.  Due to the Independence Day holiday, the next report will be published on July 13.) A global hegemon provides two broad categories of public goods.  The first is security.  A successful hegemon enforces some degree of global security as it has the ability to project power globally.  This power… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Geopolitics of the 2020 Election: Part V (June 22, 2020)

by Bill O’Grady | PDF This is the final report in our five-part series on the geopolitics of the 2020 election, which was divided into nine sections.  This week, we conclude the report by covering the eighth and ninth sections, the base cases for a Trump or Biden win and market ramifications. Read the full report

Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Geopolitics of the 2020 Election: Part IV (June 15, 2020)

by Bill O’Grady | PDF In this five-part series on the geopolitics of the 2020 election, we have divided the reports into nine sections. Last week, in Part III, we covered the incidence of establishment policy and the role of social media.  This week, we reveal the sixth and seventh sections; we handicap the race… Read More »

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