Weekly Geopolitical Report

Weekly Geopolitical Report – Turkey Lashing Out (August 5, 2019)

by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA Here at Confluence, we write a lot about the rise and fall of hegemonic states – those great nations that develop enough power and influence to dominate the global economy, or at least some region of it.  These superpowers use their extraordinary military might and other levers to impose order on… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Economic Triangle: Part II (July 29, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady The Economic Triangle: Part II  Last week, we referenced the basic philosophies of David Hume and Adam Smith and how their writings evolved into the economic theory of supply and demand.  From there, we examined the weakness of supply and demand at the macro level and discussed an alternative model, the Economic… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Economic Triangle: Part I (July 22, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady In mid-August 2016, I published a two-part series titled “Thinking about Thinking” (see Part I and II).  Occasionally, I will be asked which WGR is my favorite or most important.  I generally refer readers to the aforementioned reports. One facet of that report is the three statements of knowledge—a priori analytic statements, a… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – Russia’s Local Elections (July 15, 2019)

by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA Although Russia hasn’t been in the Western news very much recently, there’s been plenty of action “under the radar” related to the country’s regional and municipal elections this fall. On September 8, governors will be elected in 16 of the country’s 85 regions, including the important city of St. Petersburg.  Legislative… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Mid-Year Geopolitical Outlook (June 24, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady (Due to the Independence Day holiday and a short summer hiatus, the next report will be published July 15.) As is our custom, we update our geopolitical outlook for the remainder of the year as the first half comes to a close.  This report is less a series of predictions as it is… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – War with Iran? (June 17, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady Over the past year, U.S. relations with Iran have deteriorated.  In May 2018, President Trump announced he would withdraw from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), a multinational treaty that was designed to slow, but not eliminate, Iran’s nuclear development.  As part of exiting the JCPOA, the U.S. reapplied sanctions that have… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – Reflections on Tiananmen (June 10, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady Thirty years ago, on June 4, troops from the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) descended upon Tiananmen Square to forcibly remove protestors who had been using the space for about two months.  The protestors were agitating for democracy, an end to corruption and a more inclusive political system. Details of the incident remain unsettled. … Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – Rare Earths (June 3, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady (NB: To improve readability, we are now linking references to media reports and articles directly in the text via hyperlinks. Footnoting will be reserved for documents to which we can’t link or to provide additional clarity on a topic.) Since early May, the trade tensions with China have morphed into a broader conflict. … Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – Venezuela: An Update, Part II (May 20, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady (N.B.  Due to the Memorial Day holiday, the next issue will be published June 3.) In Part I of this report, we provided readers with a short history of Venezuela to bring some context to the current situation.  This week, Part II, will examine the attempts by the opposition to oust Maduro, the… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – Venezuela: An Update, Part I (May 13, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady On May 10, 2018, Nicolas Maduro was reelected as president of Venezuela.  However, there were numerous irregularities during the vote and, as such, the U.S. and the Organization of American States (OAS) refused to view the election as legitimate.  Shortly after Maduro was officially inaugurated on January 10, 2019, the National Assembly, which… Read More »

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