Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Posen vs. Pettis (February 26, 2024)

by Bill O’Grady | PDF

Michael Pettis is a professor of finance at Guanghua School of Management at Peking University in Beijing and a nonresident senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.  He is a well-known analyst of China’s economy and financial system.  Adam Posen is currently the president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics.  He has worked for numerous central banks, including the New York Federal Reserve and the Deutsche Bundesbank.  He was a member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee from 2009 to 2012.

Posen and Pettis have differing views on what ails the Chinese economy.  Which view is correct is important in instituting a fix for China’s economy and establishing what response the US and other nations should take toward China.  In this report, we will outline the respective positions of both Posen and Pettis on China’s economy and discuss who we believe is more correct.  The latter issue is crucial.  If Posen is correct, the answer may be as simple as removing Chinese President Xi from office and returning to the policies that preceded him.  If Pettis is correct, fixing the issues will be far more challenging.

Read the full report

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