Daily Comment

Daily Comment (April 18, 2017)

by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Here are some of the news items we are following this morning: PM May calls snap election: Reversing her earlier stance, Theresa May has called for a general election on June 8.  The previously scheduled election wasn’t due until 2020, but there are rising… Read More »

Daily Comment (April 17, 2017)

by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Erdogan narrowly wins: In Turkey, it appears that voters have approved major changes to the political system by a 51% to 49% margin.  There were reports of widespread voter irregularity and the opposition has announced it will formally protest the vote.  The new laws… Read More »

Daily Comment (April 13, 2017)

by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] In a wide-ranging interview, President Trump roiled the markets late yesterday by admitting that (a) China is not a currency manipulator; (b) the dollar is too strong; and (c) Chair Yellen might be invited to stay at the FOMC.  Point (b) was the market-moving… Read More »

Daily Comment (April 12, 2017)

by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] SOS Tillerson is in Moscow as tensions are rising.  The White House is accusing the Kremlin of having prior knowledge of the sarin attack in Syria and attempting to cover up the attack.  Putin is suggesting that the U.S. is being “duped” by rebels… Read More »

Daily Comment (April 11, 2017)

by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] U.S. equity markets continue to meander; hopes for fiscal support continue to buoy equities but there are growing worries that the administration will fail to deliver.  Geopolitical issues are a concern as well.  Sean Spicer, the administration’s press secretary, seemed to add barrel bombs… Read More »

Daily Comment (April 10, 2017)

by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Global markets are generally quiet this morning as investors try to discern how to handle President Trump’s new muscular exercise of foreign policy.  After reading and reflecting over the weekend, we offer our take on the missile strike against Syria.  First, this is a… Read More »

Daily Comment (April 7, 2017)

by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Employment Data Day!  We cover the data in detail below but the payroll data, showing only a 98k rise, was quite disappointing.  We suspect seasonal factors played a role as February weather was unusually mild while March was colder.  It should also be… Read More »

Daily Comment (April 6, 2017)

by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Most of the time, Fed minutes are snoozers.  On the other hand, there is often real action within the FOMC.  The full meeting transcripts are published with a five-year lag and they show verbal sniping and open disagreement.  By contrast, the minutes are sanitized… Read More »

Daily Comment (April 5, 2017)

by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Yesterday, Richmond FRB President Lacker announced he was stepping down immediately after admitting he was involved in a leak of confidential information to an analyst with Medley Advisors, a well-connected Washington think tank.  In October 2012, Medley published details of Fed deliberations that were… Read More »

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