Daily Comment

Daily Comment (May 27, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] As noted below, Chair Yellen speaks later this morning.  This talk has been long awaited; however, we don’t expect too much.  In our opinion, Yellen remains dovish and would likely prefer not to move rates this year.  However, she does need to maintain control of the… Read More »

Daily Comment (May 26, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Last week, the finance ministers of the G-7 met; now the leaders are meeting.  There is no lack of topics for discussion.  Although China isn’t a member, there has been some discussion of China’s activity in the South China Sea.  China, of course, suggests that this… Read More »

Daily Comment (May 25, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It was another quiet night for news.  EU officials hailed a “breakthrough” in debt talks with Greece.  Officials met “into the wee, small hours of the morning”[1] and agreed to release €10.3 bn of new funds to Greece in recognition of the fiscal reforms already made… Read More »

Daily Comment (May 24, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s another quiet morning in front of Chair Yellen’s speech on Friday.  Yesterday, Dallas FRB President Harker added to voices calling for a rate hike this summer.  Fed funds futures are putting the odds of a June hike at about 32%, but the odds are over… Read More »

Daily Comment (May 23, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The G-7 meeting ended with a reaffirmed pledge not to weaken currencies.  Japanese Finance Minister Aso said that the country will not be delaying a planned sales tax hike.  Additionally, BOJ Governor Kuroda indicated that the central bank is ready to use additional monetary stimulus as… Read More »

Daily Comment (May 20, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Markets were quiet overnight.  The G-7 meeting, being held in Japan, is probably the most important event going on at the moment.  So far, Japan has been politely discouraged from using tools to weaken the JPY.  We suspect that after this meeting ends, Japan will take… Read More »

Daily Comment (May 19, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The FOMC minutes were more hawkish than the market expected.  In fact, in the minutes, the members expressed concern that the financial markets are underestimating the likelihood of a rate move.  The committee felt that foreign risks have lessened and several suggested that the balance of… Read More »

Daily Comment (May 18, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] There are two items of interest this morning, which are linked.  First, worries about the Fed moving rates higher are starting to rise.  Fed funds futures are now projecting a 12% chance of a hike in June.  Although this level remains low, it is up from… Read More »

Daily Comment (May 17, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] After a strong rally yesterday, we are seeing some consolidation this morning.  There is lots of news this week, with a full lineup of U.S. economic data today (see below), Fed minutes tomorrow and a G-7 meeting over the weekend.  The latter will be quite interesting. … Read More »

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