by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash

[Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Equity market weakness continues this morning after a sell-off yesterday.  The dollar is rising, boosted by the 10-year T-note definitively breaking 3%.  Here is what we are watching this morning:

Did Macron save the Iran deal?  Probably not.  Although it isn’t obvious what “plan B” is if the U.S. kills the agreement, President Trump seems inclined to do so.  We view the Iran deal as flawed.  It doesn’t cover Iran’s missile program or its covert actions in the region.  In other words, it is limited to the nuclear program and it only delays its progress.  However, it has been our position that President Obama viewed the deal as a first step in normalizing relations with Iran to anoint Tehran as the regional hegemon so the U.S. could shift its focus to the Far East.  When Clinton lost to Trump, that extension became impossible (and there is little evidence to suggest Clinton would have followed Obama’s path anyway).  Still, by all accounts, Iran is living up to the letter of the agreement.  So, why end it?  In part, the president’s base loves it whenever Trump kills an Obama era policy.  On the other hand, if the problem is Iran’s behavior in the region then addressing that issue would make sense.  To some degree, Macron also pressed Trump to keep a military presence in Syria.  If the U.S. really wants to curtail Iran’s behavior, it should put more military assets in Iraq and Syria, ally with Turkey and break the “Shiite arc” that is being built from Iran to Lebanon.  However, that policy move would undermine the president’s Jacksonian principles, which is essentially isolationist except when honor is besmirched.  May 12^th is the deadline for reaffirming the current treaty.  If the U.S. withdraws, U.S. sanctions will return.  Of course, the Europeans may decide not to follow U.S. lead, which would undermine the effectiveness of sanctions.  Iran will likely begin the process of restarting its nuclear program.  We would expect oil prices to rise, although some of the current increase is due to the market discounting the potential for an end to the agreement.

Financial markets: The dollar has been rising, while Treasury yields and equities are continuing to struggle in the face of strong earnings.  The key issue is whether or not these trends are the start of a major trend change or simply a short-term situation.  For now, we tend to think much of this is short term.  We note that liquidity levels remain elevated.

This chart shows the level of retail money market holdings along with the S&P 500.  In this bull market, the index tends to stall when money market levels fall below $920 bn.  Current money market levels are just over $1.0 trillion, meaning there is ample liquidity for investors if they choose to purchase equities.  Of course, every indicator exists in an environment of conditions and one of those conditions in this bull market has been very low interest rates.  If equities fail to rally despite ample liquidity, it could mean that rates have increased to a point where cash is seen as an alternative to fixed income or equities.  If that is the case, then this indicator may not be as bullish as it looks.  We believe it’s too early to make that case; the national rate of checking account interest is 5 bps and retail money markets are at a whopping 11 bps, so it is hard to see that as a viable alternative.

However, there is another observation that does raise our concern.  The chart below overlays the president’s approval rating with the S&P 500.  Two items are worth noting.  His approval rating steadily slumped into late December when the GOP was putting the finishing touches on the tax bill.  One would think that passing a historic tax cut would have been popular with the public, but it doesn’t appear that was the case.  Second, as the president has moved to impede trade, his approval ratings have risen sharply while the equity market has corrected.  This should signal to the president that what makes voters like him isn’t a roaring stock market but hope that workers won’t be competing with foreigners.  Protectionism is clearly not popular with equities as evidenced by the slump in the index that coincides with the move toward trade restrictions.   The lesson the president should take from this is that a weaker equity market doesn’t hurt his political stature.

The other longer term takeaway, which has been a concern of ours for a while, is that populism isn’t going to be good for financial markets.  Populism, which eventually entails de-globalization, re-regulation of the economy and higher taxes, will lead to more inflation and weaker margins over time.

This chart shows the shares of national income that go to labor and capital.  One of our contentions is that when communism collapsed, the political class concluded it no longer had to prove that capitalism offered a better life for most people compared to communism.  The constraints on capital, in the form of regulation, were steadily lifted leading to rising capital income and falling labor income in each business cycle.  The share of national income going to capital is now at a postwar high.  The social trends we are seeing suggest this trend may be reaching its acme, meaning margins will begin falling with each business cycle going forward.  We don’t know this with certainty.  As we like to say, “they don’t call it the establishment for nothing,” but when politicians see their approval ratings rise when they push populist policies it is reasonable to expect more of such policies.  This is a long-term problem for equities; the big question we often ponder is when does the long-term become the present?  We don’t think we are there yet, but it is hard to believe we won’t be there in the next five to 10 years.

China’s #MeToo: A backlash is brewing against sexual harassment in China.  Students at some of China’s most respected universities are engaging in coordinated protests against officials who have attempted to cover up scandals on campus.  These protests bear watching because President Xi has been aggressive in quashing any organized activity that isn’t sanctioned by the CPC.  The most reasonable response for Xi will be to try to co-opt the movement, which would mean giving voice to the victims while using the party to crack down on the miscreants.  If past behavior is any guide, Xi will not tolerate an organized movement outside the party so look for a crackdown if the students insist on independence.

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by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash

[Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It was an unusually quiet night.  After a barrage of tweets recently, the president appears occupied with his French visitor for now, which might account for the current “tweet silence.”  Earnings are coming in stronger than expected (see above), while Treasury yields remain elevated.  Here is what we are watching today:

Early look at the ECB: The ECB meets on Thursday.  We don’t expect too much new information.  Recent economic data out of Europe has been soft, in part due to the strength of the EUR over the past year.  We expect Draghi to have little new to say on forward guidance or tapering.  Reports that the ECB may delay the decision on the timetable for ending QE until July are probably responsible for recent EUR weakness.  Overall, we don’t expect much from this meeting and the drop in the Eurozone currency has probably already discounted that outcome.

Regulation and privacy: The NYT[1] opines that new EU privacy regulations may end up strengthening the market power of the incumbents.  To some extent, this is public policy 101.  Regulation drives up the cost of doing business which acts as a barrier to entry for potential new firms coming into the business.  This article suggests another twist to the idea—regulation may enhance the existing brands because the new regulations will put the idea of privacy into the minds of consumers and make them prone to stay with the familiar, the current dominant firms.

In public policy, there are generally two broad theories of managing excessive market power.  The first is to use anti-trust laws to break up large firms into parts.  This method has drawbacks; some firms are difficult to unwind.  In a vertically integrated firm, some parts may not be able to function as standalone entities.  The classic example of anti-trust is the breakup of Standard Oil in 1911 that created 34 firms.  Several did exceedingly well in the aftermath, suggesting the breakup was good public policy.  The other theory is to allow the monopolist to exist but regulate it heavily.  The original AT&T (not the current one) is the most obvious example.  The key decision input that should decide which policy to deploy is if the industry is a “natural monopoly” or not.  A natural monopoly is an industry with increasing returns to scale; the bigger one gets, the faster the profits.  Industries where redundant infrastructure is inefficient is a good example.  So, for telephones, having competing firms all hanging wires to phones and being unable to send voice “across” different firms’ wires meant that the first mover could gain scale by crowding out new entrants.  It is unclear if the social media firms are natural monopolies.  There is evidence to suggest that due to learning curve costs or grouping (all my friends use a certain social media platform precluding the use of others) they have the characteristics of natural monopolies.  On the other hand, there is a bit of Yogi Berra’s famous line, “Nobody goes there anymore; it’s too crowded.”  We notice that social media platforms rise and fall in popularity, suggesting these markets are not natural monopolies after all.  If they are not natural monopolies then anti-trust would be a better solution.  We suspect the firms would prefer to be regulated on the assumption that they can continue to run their businesses as they see fit and, via regulatory capture, manage the regulatory environment to their advantage.  Anti-trust takes years to implement, whereas regulation can come quickly.  Therefore, the most likely short-term outcome is more regulation on social media which may not necessarily be bad for these firms.

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[1] https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/23/technology/privacy-regulation-facebook-google.html?emc=edit_mbe_20180424&nl=morning-briefing-europe&nlid=567726720180424&te=1

by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash

[Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It was a very busy weekend.  This morning, 10-year T-note yields briefly touched 3.00% and remain near that level.  The dollar is higher on somewhat soft European PMI data.  Here is what we are watching this morning:

North Korean thaw: Kim Jong-un said his nation would close its nuclear test site and suspend its long-range missile launches but didn’t go so far as to give up his nuclear arsenal, at least not immediately.  In one sense, this is a big deal; the NY Times[1] speculated this may signal an end to the current leader’s signature policy, “byungjin,” which is essentially a “guns and butter” approach to the economy.  Instead, North Korea would allow the civilian side of the economy to prosper by allocating it more resources than the military side.  If true, this signal alone is important because it suggests Kim has enough confidence in his control of the military that he can reduce its resource base.

However, like all complicated issues, this one comes with caveats.  First, the nuclear test site has probably been compromised.  Mount Mantap, the site of six nuclear tests, may have suffered enough damage to threaten leakage if another test occurs there.[2]  Although North Korea has other test sites, this one is clearly the favorite.  We would not be shocked to discover that China has pressured North Korea to stop testing at Mount Mantap.  At the same time, we doubt North Korea has completed enough tests to reliably believe it can build a working warhead, so the agreement to suspend tests is important.  Second, a suspension of missile tests can end quickly.

George Friedman at Geopolitical Futures[3] argues that North Korea is shifting from a “ferocious, weak and crazy” strategy to a “ferocious” strategy.  Kim acknowledged that North Korea is now a nuclear power, thus the weak part of the original strategy is no longer operative.  And, nuclear powers cannot be unpredictable; it invites pre-emptive attacks.  The concessions will offer both the U.S. and North Korea room to bargain but we would not expect North Korea to immediately give up its nuclear weapons program.  But, a runway for integration into the world economy would bolster North Korea’s economy.  The key unknown is Kim’s views on markets.  His grandfather and father saw markets as a threat but it appears Kim does not.  Thus, North Korea may be opting for a Chinese model of development.

Europe visits the White House: President Macron and Chancellor Merkel are visiting the White House this week.  We expect each of them to suggest that allies don’t fight over trade (which really isn’t true—Reagan did with Japan and Germany) and that the U.S. should not simply jettison the Iranian nuclear deal.  President Trump and President Macron seem to get along well on a personal level which might help discussions.  However, we still view the chances that the Iranian deal gets scotched as elevated.  SOS nominee Pompeo will likely not be recommended by the Senate Foreign Relations committee this week but will probably still get the position by a narrow margin in the Senate vote.  His appointment would add another Iran hawk to the administration.

China rumblings: There were four items of note on China.  First, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin tried to lower the temperature on trade tensions with China over the weekend.  At the spring IMF meetings, Mnuchin met with PBOC Governor Yi Gang and informed the Chinese official that he is interested in visiting China.  It appears China was open to talks.  In discussions at the IMF meeting, Mnuchin expressed optimism that a trade conflict would be avoided.  Second, President Xi and PM Modi of India have announced they will hold informal talks on Friday and Saturday of this week.  India and China have a contentious mountain border and the former has looked at the one-belt, one-road project with trepidation, fearing encroachment by China into South Asia.  China has allied itself with Pakistan, India’s arch-enemy.  Although India has improved ties with the U.S., concerns about the stability of American policy may be prompting Modi to seek accommodation with China.  Third, the Pakistani press[4] is reporting that China is “ready to provide security guarantees for the one-belt, one-road project.”  At this point, China doesn’t have the military infrastructure to back such claims.  However, we note that the U.S. didn’t either when it unveiled the “Monroe Doctrine.”  Simply making the claim is important if no outside power challenges the claim.  Fourth, the EU is claiming that China is using criminal groups to avoid VAT in Europe.[5]

Global tensions: Greece is reporting that Turkey has been increasing incursions into Greek airspace and waters recently.[6]  Greece was given islands near Turkey at the end of WWI, which was also the end of the Ottoman Empire.  It appears that Turkish President Erdogan is trying to rebuild at least part of that fallen empire.  He is also encroaching into Iraqi and Syrian territory and the threats to Greece are part of that posture.  In the same region, widespread protests were reported in Armenia.  The former president, Serzh Sargsyan, had to step down due to term limits.  He then took the role of prime minister and transferred all the power of the presidency to his new role.  Anger over Sargsyan’s ploy to extend his rule has led to the unrest.  Widespread protests also continue in Iran.  Much of the unrest is due to deteriorating economic conditions.  A drought is leading farmers to demonstrate against Iran’s water allocation policies.  The nuclear deal was partly done to improve the economic lot of Iranians.  However, lingering sanctions and uncertainty about the future path of the nuclear deal have tempered economic growth.  If President Trump does kill the nuclear deal, Iranian leaders will likely welcome that outcome because it would allow them to blame the U.S. for their economic woes.  The nuclear deal raised expectations that have not been met; reinstituting sanctions would reduce those expectations.

U.S. aluminum prices fall: There are reports that the administration may ease sanctions on Rusal (HKD 0486, 1.52) after its controversial leader, Oleg Deripaska, offered to step down as president.  The news has led to a drop in U.S. aluminum prices.

Saudi scare: Over the weekend, there were reports of massive gunfire in Riyadh.  Although there were unconfirmed rumors of a coup attempt, the official report was that a drone had strayed near the Royal Palace, triggering a wave of anti-aircraft fire.  There were unconfirmed reports King Salman was moved to a secure bunker in the capitol.  At this point, it is unclear if this incident was anything more than the official version of the story.  Clearly, the oil markets are unconcerned as prices are slumping this morning.  We will be watching in the coming days to see if there are any reports of arrests.  However, even if the official version is correct, the reaction observed in Riyadh does suggest that security forces are on elevated alert.

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[1] https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/21/world/asia/north-korea-kim-jong-un-nuclear-tests.html

[2] https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/after-six-tests-the-mountain-hosting-north-koreas-nuclear-blasts-may-be-exhausted/2017/10/20/ccdfa016-b50d-11e7-9b93-b97043e57a22_story.html?utm_term=.bc0f2e110390

[3] https://geopoliticalfutures.com/north-koreas-strategy-halting-nuclear-program/ (paywall).

[4] http://paktribune.com/news/China-ready-to-provide-security-guarantees-for-the-One-Belt-One-Road-project-280601.html

[5] http://m.scmp.com/news/world/united-states-canada/article/2142760/eu-suspects-tax-fraud-chinas-gateway-europe-state?amp=1&__twitter_impression=true

[6] https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/21/world/europe/greece-turkey-islands.html

by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash

[Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It was a mostly quiet overnight session.  Here is what we are watching this morning:

Policy talk boosts greenback: Dovish comments from the ECB and BOE have lifted the dollar this morning.  The ECB is considering delaying the path of tapering due to recent economic weakness and BOE Governor Carney made similar statements as well.  We have been bearish the dollar based on valuation issues; using inflation parity, the dollar remains overvalued, although the degree of overvaluation has been reduced.  Monetary policy, under conditions of overvaluation, is usually not all that important.  However, the dollar has been range-bound in recent months and we suspect that condition will remain in place for a few more weeks before the dollar’s decline resumes.

Trump and OPEC: The president tweeted this morning that OPEC is “at it again” artificially boosting prices.  Oil prices dropped sharply on his comments.  He argued that there are “record amounts of oil all over the place.”  This is clearly wrong.  As we detailed yesterday, oil inventories are well off their peak and we have not seen the usual seasonal build in stockpiles that typically occurs in the first four months of the year.  The president suggested “this will not be accepted.”  There are two things the president could do to bring down oil prices.  First, he could authorize a release of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR).  Although the government plans to sell oil out of the reserve in the coming years for budgetary reasons, there is still ample oil available in the reserve.  This action would be improper—the SPR is designed for emergencies, not for guiding prices.  However, other presidents have used the reserve in this way; President Clinton did so in the late 1990s (although officially this release was related to heating oil).  The second action he could take would be to recommend legislation to stop oil exports.  This would lower U.S. oil prices relative to the world and give OPEC + Russia what it really wants, which is an end to the supply threat from shale oil.  We remain bullish oil; the president could affect oil supplies but, in reality, this morning’s tweeting is simply jawboning.  However, politically, his comments make sense; high gasoline prices are never popular with the public and calling out OPEC is one way to react to higher gasoline prices.

In related news, Saudi Arabia and Russia will begin talks over the weekend “on sending a signal on what they will do beyond next year.”[1]  Saudi Arabia needs Brent around $75 per barrel to meet its fiscal obligations.  Russia can balance its budget with $53 oil.  The two must decide if they will continue their program to reduce supplies or begin to retake market share.  Although we are bullish crude oil, any news that OPEC is boosting supplies will be bearish for prices, at least in the short term.  Longer term, if the Iran deal ends or the conflict in Syria spreads, oil prices would likely rise.

North Korea: Media reports indicate that North Korea will not have preconditions for upcoming talks.  Although there is concern about strategic ambiguity (the U.S. and the DPRK say the same thing but mean something different), it does appear that Kim wants a deal of some sort.  The talks are a high-stakes gamble.  If negotiations are successful they could bring peace to a troubled part of the world and give President Trump an historic breakthrough.  If they fail, it’s hard to see how war doesn’t follow.

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[1] https://www.wsj.com/articles/an-oil-deal-between-saudi-and-russia-worked-now-what-1524130200

by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash

[Posted: 9:30 AM EDT]

Castro era coming to an end: Today, Raul Castro, brother of Fidel Castro, is expected to step down as Cuba’s president. Castro will be replaced by his vice president, Miguel Diaz-Canel Bermudez, but will still retain his role as head of the Communist Party until 2021. Miguel Diaz-Canel will be the first non-Castro president since the end of the Cuban Revolution in 1959. His ascension to the presidency will likely be well-received by many Cubans, especially the younger population, as the country is in the midst of economic stagnation. Since Diaz-Canel has maintained a relatively low profile prior to his nomination, it is unclear what changes he is likely to make, if any. Many speculate that his nomination represents a subtle break in Cuban political continuity as he was born after the Cuban Revolution. At this moment, it is unclear what his nomination means for U.S.-Cuba relations, but it was reported that he was skeptical of Raul Castro’s attempt to normalize relations with the U.S.[1] Tensions have been elevated between the two countries following a sonic attack on the U.S. embassy in Cuba that left diplomats injured.

Complete denuclearization in NK? According to South Korean President Moon Jae-in, North Korea has expressed interest in an agreement to completely denuclearize without the condition of U.S. troop withdrawal from the Korean Peninsula.[2] This marks another breakthrough in normalizing relations between the two Koreas; yesterday the countries agreed to hold talks to formally end the Korean War. The caveat to possible complete denuclearization is that the U.S. would have to agree to end hostile policies against North Korea and guarantee its security. The comments appear to be a prelude to the proposed meeting between President Trump and Kim Jong-un. President Trump has expressed a limited amount of optimism regarding the meeting, stating that he is prepared to pull out of the meeting if it is not “fruitful.” We will continue to monitor this situation.

Return to $100 a barrel? Oil prices touched four-year highs due to speculation that OPEC will extend supply curbs into 2019. There have been rumors that senior Saudi officials are pushing to force prices to reach $80 or even $100 a barrel in order to boost the IPO price as well as support some Saudi economic initiatives, such as Vision 2030. Energy stock prices also rose on the news.

Energy recap: U.S. crude oil inventories fell 1.1 mb compared to market expectations of a 0.6 mb draw.

This chart shows current crude oil inventories, both over the long term and the last decade. We have added the estimated level of lease stocks to maintain the consistency of the data. As the chart shows, inventories remain historically high but have declined significantly since last March. We would consider the overhang closed if stocks fall under 400 mb.

As the seasonal chart below shows, inventories are usually rising this time of year. This week’s decline in stockpiles is counter-seasonal. Every week that fails to show a build on the seasonal pattern is a week where the seasonal factors become less bearish. We are approaching the end of the seasonal build period; assuming a strong summer driving season, this chart is bullish for crude oil.

Based on inventories alone, oil prices are undervalued with the fair value price of $64.99.  Meanwhile, the EUR/WTI model generates a fair value of $74.57. Together (which is a more sound methodology), fair value is $71.40, meaning that current prices are below fair value. Oil prices have been rising on geopolitical tensions and bullish fundamentals. We still view oil prices as undervalued but the degree of undervaluation is diminishing. However, as the above chart on seasonal pattern suggests, declining inventories this summer portends higher prices.

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[1] https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/in-cubas-national-assembly-raul-castro-marks-last-moments-of-his-familys-rule/2018/04/18/82f82cd4-4293-11e8-b2dc-b0a403e4720a_story.html?utm_term=.a3d5e1585c0c

[2] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles-moon/south-koreas-moon-says-north-seeking-complete-denuclearization-idUSKBN1HQ119

by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash

[Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Equity markets are quietly ticking higher.  Earnings remain strong.  Although there wasn’t much market news, there was a great deal of other news.  Here is what we are watching:

Pompeo to Pyongyang: Over Easter, CIA Director and SOS nominee Mike Pompeo was dispatched to North Korea and met directly with Kim Jong-un.  The meeting was confirmed by the president in an early morning tweet.  With the breakdown at the State Department under Tillerson, the White House has been using the intelligence channel to communicate with Pyongyang.  Reports indicate the CIA has been the conduit of backchannel talks with officials at the Reconnaissance General Bureau, the North Korean version of the CIA.  The president has also given his “blessing” to North and South Korea to begin peace talks.

There has been some discussion about the idea of denuclearization.  This has the potential to be an area of “strategic ambiguity,” where two parties say the same thing but mean something entirely different.  For the U.S., it is generally assumed that denuclearization means North Korea gives up its nuclear program.  For North Korea, the term means the U.S. and North Korea no longer threaten each other directly and U.S. troops leave South Korea.  Most analysts have considered the North Korean position a non-starter for the U.S.  Those American troops on the Korean Peninsula are part of U.S. power projection in the region.  However, that analysis may be misreading the president’s core position on foreign policy.  In terms of foreign policy, Trump is Jacksonian.[1]  That means he rejects the burdens of hegemony; foreign policy is mostly based on honor.  In this light, the Syrian policy is perfectly clear—the use of chemical weapons is a direct affront to the president and American honor but there is no need for the U.S. to shape policy in the region because it’s none of our business.  Thus, the White House might be perfectly fine with the withdrawal of U.S. troops from South Korea in exchange for an end to North Korea’s ICBM program.  In other words, the Far East would still be threatened by North Korea’s nuclear program but the U.S. would not.[2]

There are two other items that are part of these meetings.  First, it is notable that Pompeo met with Kim over Easter, which was just after Kim met with Xi in Beijing.  The timing would suggest Washington and Beijing are vying for the attention of the “young general.”  Second, Pompeo is struggling with Senate confirmation.  The announcement that he is in the midst of sensitive talks with North Korea will probably be enough to encourage the senators to approve him so as not to disrupt negotiations.

China and telecom: The U.S. is limiting the ability of ZTE (ZTE: CNY 31.31) to use American technology for seven years.  The White House has been complaining about China’s confiscation of U.S. intellectual property and thus has decided to punish one of the few truly international Chinese telecom companies.[3]  ZTE also engaged in business with nations under U.S. trade restrictions.  Huawei Technologies (SHE: CNY, 7.20) announced it will refocus on existing markets due to difficulty in doing business in the U.S.[4]  Although there has been much focus on tariffs and commodities, the real battle is in technology, where the U.S. is opposing China’s attempts to establish high-tech dominance.

Is Clarida more dovish than we thought?  Barron’s[5] offers analysis suggesting the president’s nominee for vice chair may be more dovish and less conventional than at first glance.  We will have more on this idea in the coming days but we have been concerned the president would lean dovish in picking Fed officials and may berate the central bank for rate hikes at some point.  In other words, relations between the Fed and the White House could eventually become Nixonian, which would mean higher inflation, lower nominal yields and a weaker dollar.

IMF and growth: The IMF is forecasting 3.9% GDP growth for this year, the strongest year since 2011.  The group noted that the global economy is in a widespread expansion, but did warn that a trade war could undermine the current good times.

Nickel prices jump: Nickel prices are higher this morning on fears that new sanctions on Russian nickel producers could restrict supplies.

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[1] For background, see WGRs, American Foreign Policy: A Review, Part I (10/3/16) and Part II (10/10/16)

[2] The meetings with PM Abe must have been awkward in light of the Pompeo news.

[3] https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/16/technology/chinese-tech-company-blocked-from-buying-american-components.html

[4] https://www.wsj.com/articles/huawei-looks-to-existing-markets-as-tech-becomes-target-in-u-s-china-trade-spat-1523966693

[5] https://www.barrons.com/articles/reading-richard-clarida-hawk-or-dove-1523929538