Research & News
Daily Comment (October 27, 2026)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Our Comment today opens with news of a European Union subsidy for aircraft maker Airbus that the US administration has warned could be a violation of the recent US-EU trade deal. We next review several other international and US developments that could… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The United States, China, and Constructive Strategic Stability (October 26, 2026)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez | PDF Here at Confluence, we have long conducted deep analysis of the world’s geopolitical landscape to better understand the global investment environment and craft our investment strategies. A big part of our analysis is to understand which country is currently the global “hegemon,” i.e., the big, strong, dominant nation that serves… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 26, 2026)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Our Comment today opens with a new initiative to shut down Chinese influence operations in the US that could spoil the current effort by Washington and Beijing to reduce tensions and make their relationship more stable. We next review several other international… Read More »
Asset Allocation Quarterly (Fourth Quarter 2026)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF We expect near-trend growth and no recession over our three-year horizon. Business investment and productivity gains should sustain the expansion. Additional Fed tightening is expected in the near term, resulting in inflation moderating over the forecast period. The Middle East conflict remains a source of growth and inflation… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 23, 2026)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Our Comment opens with our takeaways on the upcoming midterm elections. We then turn to fixed income and examine the recent rotation out of tech stocks and into bonds. Next, we briefly cover rising friction between the US and Canada, as well… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 22, 2026)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Our Comment opens with our thoughts on the recent attacks in Saudi Arabia. We then turn to cybersecurity, examining how AI can both uncover and create vulnerabilities. Next, we briefly cover expectations for the Bank of Japan’s upcoming rate decision, possible changes… Read More »
Keller Quarterly (October 2026)
Letter to Investors | PDF If you’ve read any of my previous letters, you’ve heard this phrase before: “a professional investor is a professional worrier.” The same can be said of individual investors, many of whom worry as much as professionals. What is critically important, however, is that we worry about the right things. The… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 21, 2026)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Our Comment opens with a look at the White House’s efforts to resolve global conflicts. We then turn to AI, examining why SpaceX’s earnings have lifted sentiment around the AI trade. Next, we briefly discuss Germany’s debate over nationalizing landlord assets and… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 20, 2026)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Today’s Comment opens with our analysis of Friedrich Merz’s warning regarding Russia. We then turn to AI, examining what the weak IPO of a South Korean cloud computing company reveals about the current AI boom. Next, we discuss post-midterm concerns surrounding defense… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 19, 2026)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Our Comment opens with the latest on the war in Iran, as Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen have again staged missile attacks on Saudi Arabian energy facilities. We next review several other international and US developments that could affect the financial markets… Read More »