Research & News
Daily Comment (January 28, 2026)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Our Comment opens with an analysis of why the US dollar continues its slide against major global currencies. We then provide a briefing on the leading contenders to head the Federal Reserve as the transition from Chair Powell nears. From there, we… Read More »
Asset Allocation Quarterly (First Quarter 2026)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Recession likelihood is low over our three-year forecast period. Economic growth continues near trend, with policy spurring business investment. Fed policy will lean dovish, supporting risk markets. Inflation likely to remain in the 2.5-3.5% range, above the Fed’s long-term target. Risk markets are expected to enter a rotation… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 27, 2026)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Our Comment today opens with a renewed threat of US tariff hikes against South Korea, illustrating how global trade tensions could rekindle at any time. We next review several other international and US developments with the potential to affect the financial markets… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Blocs, Spheres, Empires, and Colonies (January 26, 2026)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF We at Confluence have long tracked how voters in the United States are increasingly recoiling at the costs of global hegemony, i.e., the US’s traditional role as the big, dominant country that provides international security, order, and the reserve currency. We’ve shown that as voters became angry at the… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 26, 2026)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Our Comment today opens with notes on the new record price for gold above $5,000 per ounce and a related drop in the value of the dollar today. We next review several other international and US developments with the potential to affect… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 23, 2026)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Our Comment begins with the recent shift in US foreign policy toward increased interventionism, with a focus on Cuba. We also examine the finalization of the TikTok deal, the cooling of trade tensions between the EU and US, and the progress of… Read More »
Keller Quarterly (January 2026)
Letter to Investors | PDF Happy 2026! While I’m in my fifth decade in the investment business, this is the first year in that spell that Warren Buffett is not the CEO of Berkshire Hathaway. As you probably know, he stepped down from the helm of that company at the end of 2025. Mr. Buffett… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 22, 2026)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Our Comment begins with a look at the White House’s intensifying efforts to reshape the Federal Reserve. We also analyze why the de-escalation over Greenland has not improved US-EU relations. Further analysis explores why investors are discounting corporate earnings beats, the IRGC’s… Read More »