Research & News
Daily Comment (April 29, 2026)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Our Comment opens with an analysis of the UAE’s OPEC exit and its implications for the cartel. We then examine King Charles’s White House visit and what it signals for the US-UK relationship. Next, we discuss the unexpected rise in consumer confidence,… Read More »
Asset Allocation Quarterly (Second Quarter 2026)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Recession likelihood is low over our three-year forecast period. Base case expects GDP growth near historical trend, with elevated tail risks widening the range of outcomes. Higher energy prices are likely to keep inflation elevated for longer. The Middle East conflict encourages overweights to energy, industrials, defense stocks,… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 28, 2026)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Our Comment today opens with a short update on the war in Iran. We next review several other international and US developments with the potential to affect the financial markets today, including a decision by the Bank of Japan to hold its… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 27, 2026)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Our Comment today opens with a quick update on the weekend shooting at the White House Correspondents’ dinner and on the war in Iran. We next review several other international and US developments with the potential to affect the financial markets today,… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The Consensus Builder (April 27, 2026)
by Thomas Wash | PDF You never really appreciate a good thing until it’s gone. May 15 will be the final day in office for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, one of the most effective consensus builders in Fed history. Despite an extraordinary series of shocks during his tenure — from the 2019 repo market… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 24, 2026)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Our Comment opens by examining early evidence that AI is beginning to reshape labor markets in select sectors. We then turn to Spirit Airlines and how its distress could serve as a gauge of how the US might respond if the war… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 23, 2026)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Our Comment opens with a discussion of the recent chipmaker market rally. We then assess the dollar’s reserve‑currency status in light of its increased usage following the conflict in Iran. Next, we examine the US bailout of Spirit Airlines, Washington’s growing reliance… Read More »
Keller Quarterly (April 2026)
Letter to Investors | PDF When writing the January quarterly letter, we didn’t expect that the next letter would be about the effects of war on financial markets, yet that’s where we are. The air attacks on Iran by a joint US-Israel force on February 28 took the world by surprise and have dominated financial… Read More »