Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Mid-Year Geopolitical Outlook (June 24, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady

(Due to the Independence Day holiday and a short summer hiatus, the next report will be published July 15.)

As is our custom, we update our geopolitical outlook for the remainder of the year as the first half comes to a close.  This report is less a series of predictions as it is a list of potential geopolitical issues that we believe will dominate the international landscape for the rest of the year.  It is not designed to be exhaustive; instead, it focuses on the “big picture” conditions that we believe will affect policy and markets going forward.  They are listed in order of importance.

Issue #1: Deglobalization

Issue #2: Election Meddling

Issue #3: Iran

Issue #4: China

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Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Mid-Year Geopolitical Outlook (June 25, 2018)

by Bill O’Grady

(Due to the Independence Day holiday, the next report will be published July 9.)

As is our custom, we update our geopolitical outlook for the remainder of the year as the first half comes to a close.  This report is less a series of predictions as it is a list of potential geopolitical issues that we believe will dominate the international landscape for the rest of the year.  It is not designed to be exhaustive; instead, it focuses on the “big picture” conditions that we believe will affect policy and markets going forward.  They are listed in order of importance.

Issue #1: America’s Evolving Hegemony

Issue #2: Rising Western Populism

Issue #3: Rising Authoritarianism

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Weekly Geopolitical Report – Reflections on Nationalism: Part III (September 11, 2017)

by Bill O’Grady

Three weeks ago, we began our series on nationalism.  In Part I, we discussed social contract theory before and after the Enlightenment.  We examined three social contract theorists, Thomas Hobbes, John Locke and Jean-Jacques Rousseau.  In Part II, we recounted Western history from the American and French Revolutions into WWII.  From there, we examined America’s exercise of hegemony and the key lessons learned from the interwar period.  This week, we will begin with an historical analysis of the end of the Cold War and the difficulties that have developed in terms of the post-WWII consensus and current problems.  We will discuss the tensions between the U.S. superpower role and the domestic problems we face.  Next, we will analyze populism, including its rise and the dangers inherent in it.  As always, we will conclude with market ramifications.

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Weekly Geopolitical Report – Reflections on Nationalism: Part II (August 28, 2017)

by Bill O’Grady

(Due to the Labor Day holiday, the next report will be published on September 11.)

Last week, we began our series on nationalism.  In Part I of this report, we discussed social contract theory before and after the Enlightenment.  We examined three social contract theorists, Thomas Hobbes, John Locke and Jean-Jacques Rousseau.  This week, in Part II, we will recount Western history from the American and French Revolutions into WWII.  From there, we will analyze America’s exercise of hegemony and the key lessons learned from the interwar period.

In two weeks, in Part III, we will begin with an historical analysis of the end of the Cold War and the difficulties that have developed in terms of the post-WWII consensus and current problems.  We will discuss the tensions between the U.S. superpower role and the domestic problems we face.  From there, an analysis of populism will follow, including its rise and the dangers inherent in it.  As always, we will conclude with market ramifications.

View the full report