Tag: chip war
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Great AI Race: A Sputnik Moment for the 21st Century (September 15, 2025)
by Thomas Wash | PDF
On his first full day in office, President Trump convened a group of prominent tech leaders in what he characterized as an effort to secure the United States’ technological future. This meeting launched the largest artificial intelligence infrastructure initiative in US history, named Stargate Project. The strategy forged a major public-private partnership with firms such as OpenAI, SoftBank, and Oracle, creating a joint venture with a fund that will exceed $500 billion over the next four years in order to cement US global dominance in artificial intelligence (AI).
This initiative placed the US at the forefront of a struggle with China that transcends a mere contest for technological supremacy; it is a fundamental clash of economic systems. While both are engaged in industrial state policy, China employs a state-guided, top-down model, using its bureaucracy to steer markets toward national objectives. In contrast, the American industrial approach is decentralized and industry-led, relying on private enterprise to drive innovation and growth.
The outcome of this contest will do more than anoint a global technology leader. It will also determine the dominant economic framework of the 21st century, which could not only profoundly reshape the world economy but also the architecture of the global financial system. Thus, much like Sputnik, this isn’t just about a single technological achievement; rather, the future of the global order could be at stake. In this report, we discuss the AI race between the US and China and what it means for markets going forward.
Don’t miss our accompanying podcasts, available on our website and most podcast platforms: Apple | Spotify
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Podcast – #65 “Export Controls: Another Battle in the US-China Trade War” (Posted 5/2/25)
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Export Controls: Another Battle in the US-China Trade War (April 28, 2025)
by Thomas Wash | PDF
Even though tariffs dominate the headlines today, export controls have emerged as an additional key weapon in the economic warfare between the United States and China. While the world’s two largest economies continue imposing tariffs on each other’s goods, they are also now strategically blocking exports of crucial technologies and minerals to each other. This transformation of supply chains into battlegrounds largely reflects how the two sides are vying for dominance in artificial intelligence. By restricting access to vital components like semiconductor equipment and rare earth elements, both nations seek to slow their rival’s technological advancement while strengthening their own competitive edge.
In this report, we show how the US-China economic war has spread beyond tariffs to encompass export controls. These trade restrictions are another step in our recently published “escalation ladder” showing how the US-China conflict could worsen (see Figure 1, next page). We focus here on the controls over semiconductor technology and critical minerals and show that each side is trying to mitigate the other’s supply cut-offs. We wrap up, as always, with a discussion of the implications for investors.