Research & News
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Parsing the World’s New Geopolitical Blocs (May 9, 2022)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF For more than a decade, we at Confluence have been tracking and writing about the waning commitment of the U.S. to its role as global hegemon. We’ve shown how U.S. retrenchment and protectionism have helped erode globalization. Factors like deregulation, falling transportation costs, improved technology, and easing geopolitical tensions… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (May 5, 2022)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF It appears oil prices are attempting to create a trading range between $105 to $95 per barrel. That may hold until the SPR release is complete. (Source: Barchart.com) Crude oil inventories unexpectedly rose 1.3 mb compared to a 0.2 mb draw forecast. The SPR… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The Tale of Two Surveys (May 2, 2022)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF The Conference Board Survey of Consumer Confidence and the University of Michigan Survey of Consumer Sentiment are two closely followed reports about the American consumer. Domestic consumption makes up about two-thirds of the U.S. economy, so insights into consumer attitudes may predict changes in the business cycle. The… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (April 28, 2022)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF It appears oil prices are attempting to create a trading range between $105 to $95 per barrel. That may hold until the SPR release is complete. (Source: Barchart.com) Crude oil inventories unexpectedly rose 0.7 mb compared to a 0.3 mb draw forecast. The SPR… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Russians Respond (April 25, 2022)
by Bill O’Grady | PDF In mid-March, we wrote a report detailing the effects of financial sanctions on Russia. And now, about six weeks later, we are seeing the response from Russia. As we noted in our earlier report, Western sanctions on Russia were extensive. Although something similar was deployed against Iran, never before had… Read More »
Keller Quarterly (April 2022)
Letter to Investors | PDF Well, let’s count the things people are worrying about: we’re over two years into a global pandemic, commodity prices are spiking upward, consumer price inflation has risen dramatically, the Fed is raising interest rates, recession worries are spreading, and there’s a war in Europe. I am asked almost every day,… Read More »