Research & News
Weekly Energy Update (August 4, 2022)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Prices are testing long-term support near $90 per barrel for crude oil. (Source: Barchart.com) Crude oil inventories rose 4.5 mb compared to a 1.5 mb draw forecast. The SPR declined 4.7 mb, meaning the net draw was 0.2 mb. In the details, U.S. crude… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Political Crises for Top U.S. Allies (August 1, 2022)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF It’s been a hot summer for some of the United States’ key allies, and we don’t just mean the weather. We’ve seen a major political assassination in Japan, the scandal-driven ouster of a prime minister in the United Kingdom, and a failed vote of confidence that led to the… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (July 28, 2022)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF It appears that oil prices are settling into a broad trading range between $125 and $95 per barrel. (Source: Barchart.com) Crude oil inventories fell 4.5 mb compared to a 1.5 mb draw forecast. The SPR declined 5.6 mb, meaning the net draw was 10.1… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The Puzzle of the Labor Force (July 25, 2022)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF In the June 27 report, we discussed the idea that the FOMC may focus on reducing job openings rather than raising the unemployment rate as a way to ease labor-market tightness. The consensus from the establishment survey portion of the June payroll report, which questions employers, was that… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (July 21, 2022)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF It appears that oil prices are settling into a broad trading range between $125 and $95 per barrel. (Source: Barchart.com) Crude oil inventories fell 0.5 mb compared to a 1.0 mb draw forecast. The SPR declined 5.0 mb, meaning the net draw was 5.5… Read More »
Keller Quarterly (July 2022)
Letter to Investors | PDF The stock and bond markets continue to act as if a recession is imminent. “Why might a recession come upon us?” you might ask. “Isn’t the unemployment rate very low?” Yes, it is. While rising inflation has caused folks to defer purchases, the economy is still doing rather well. The… Read More »
Asset Allocation Quarterly (Third Quarter 2022)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Global growth is clearly slowing and the probability of a recession in the U.S. over the next year is significantly elevated. The Fed is continuing its aggressive attack on inflation through rapid increases in the fed funds rate and accelerating its balance sheet reduction. Economic data from overseas… Read More »