Research & News
Daily Comment (August 28, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Our Comment today opens with a review of Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s address to the Kansas City FRB’s symposium in Jackson Hole on Friday. We next review a wide range of other international and U.S. developments with the potential to affect the… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – Examining the Rise in T-Note Yields (August 28, 2023)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Perhaps the most interesting market event this month has been the rapid jump in 10-year Treasury note yields. At the end of May, the 10-year Treasury was yielding 3.64%, but recently the yield hit 4.36%. What’s behind this jump? Here are a few reasons behind the rise: Treasury… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 25, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning! Today’s Comment will be split into three main topics: 1) What investors will be looking for in Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole; 2) How China is using BRICS as a way to challenge the U.S. and its… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 24, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning! Today’s Comment focuses on three major themes: 1) Why mixed data shows that it is too soon to rule out the possibility of a recession; 2) How the GOP debates may be more important than people realize; and 3) Why… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (August 24, 2023)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Oil prices continued to weaken this week, although there are technical signs that prices might be consolidating at these elevated levels. (Source: Barchart.com) Commercial crude oil inventories fell 6.1 mb, lower than the 2.5 mb draw forecast. The SPR rose 0.6 mb which puts… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 23, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning from a blistering hot St. Louis! It’s the “dog days” of August, and as we noted above, U.S. equity futures are pointing to a higher open. Unfortunately, we have been experiencing this pattern recently, where we see stronger futures overnight… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 22, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Our Comment opens with a curtain-raiser for the BRICS summit starting today in South Africa. We next review a wide range of other international and U.S. developments with the potential to affect the financial markets today, including news of growing trade ties… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Reflections on the New Cold War (August 21, 2023)
Bill O’Grady | PDF Note: Due to the Labor Day holiday in two weeks, the next edition of this report will be published on September 18. Our geopolitical research over the past 15 years has had a consistent theme—that U.S. hegemony is under strain. Essentially, costs of America’s hegemonic role have become unbearable for the… Read More »