Research & News
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The 2024 Geopolitical Outlook (December 11, 2023)
by Bill O’Grady & Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF (This is the final BWGR of 2023; the next report will be published on January 15, 2024.) As is our custom, in mid-December, we publish our geopolitical outlook for the upcoming year. This report is less a series of predictions as it is a list of… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (December 7, 2023)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Crude oil prices are breaking down despite OPEC+ efforts to restrain supply. (Source: Barchart.com) Commercial crude oil inventories fell 4.6 mb compared to forecasts of a 3.0 mb draw. The SPR rose 0.3 mb, which puts the net draw at 4.3 mb. In the… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – A Pause That Refreshes? (December 4, 2023)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF (Note: This is the final AABW of 2023; the next report will be published in January 2024.) In 1929, Coca-Cola® introduced the tagline “a pause that refreshes.” Although other advertising campaigns have come and gone, this line still sticks around in the public consciousness. And, it has moved… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (November 30, 2023)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Crude oil prices have retreated from their early October highs. (Source: Barchart.com) Commercial crude oil inventories rose 1.6 mb compared to forecasts of a 1.7 mb draw. The SPR rose 0.3 mb, which puts the net build at 1.9 mb. In the details, U.S.… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – Reflections on Earnings (November 20, 2023)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF The third quarter’s earnings season is coming to a close and, once again, earnings beat expectations. In this report, we will take a more in-depth look at S&P 500 earnings and overall corporate earnings. This chart examines S&P 500 earnings on a four-quarter trailing basis. We have regressed… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (November 16, 2023)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Crude oil prices have retreated from their early October highs. (Source: Barchart.com) Commercial crude oil inventories rose 0.8 mb compared to forecasts of a 2.0 mb build. The SPR was unchanged, which puts the net build at 0.8 mb. In the details, U.S. crude… Read More »