Research & News
Asset Allocation Quarterly (Fourth Quarter 2024)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Our three-year forecast includes balanced economic growth, albeit at a slower pace than recent experience, and inflation settling above the Fed’s target rate. The Fed is expected to continue easing at a measured pace over the next year. We initiated a position in long-duration, zero-coupon Treasurys as a… Read More »
Keller Quarterly (October 2024)
Letter to Investors | PDF “Will it play in Peoria?” That wonderfully alliterative question originated in the show business community. A show that might “knock ‘em dead” in New York might not be so popular in the rest of the country. We live in a big nation. While there is a commonality that binds us… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Israel’s Pager Caper and Supply Chain Security (October 21, 2024)
by Bill O’Grady and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Can you trust your refrigerator? What if it could be weaponized against you, perhaps by being booby-trapped to explode, release poisonous gas, or just stop working on the command of some foreign enemy communicating with its computer chip? Just as important, if everyday products connected to… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The Yield Curve Un-Inverts (October 14, 2024)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Although the financial press has failed to discuss it at length, the United States bond market has just exited a long period in which the yield curve (the range of bond yields across maturities) was inverted (longer-term yields were lower than shorter-term yields). One popular summary measure of… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The US Presidential Election: Foreign Policy Implications (October 7, 2024)
by Daniel Ortwerth, CFA and Thomas Wash | PDF History shows that, despite the promises made as candidates, United States presidents display remarkable foreign policy consistency from one administration to the next. While often distinguishing themselves in the realm of domestic policy, the imperatives of national security tend to force the hands of presidents into… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 3, 2024)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Good morning! The market is currently awaiting the release of the jobs report data and Israel’s response to Iran. In sports news, Lionel Messi’s Inter Miami has won the 2024 Supporters’ Shield for the second year in a row. Today’s Comment will… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 2, 2024)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Good morning! Markets are still grappling with the ongoing Middle Eastern conflict. Today’s Comment will analyze the escalating Israel-Iran tensions, explore the reasons behind the positive surprise from JOLTS, and provide our perspective on the recent vice presidential debate. Finally, we’ll conclude… Read More »