Research & News
Daily Comment (April 14, 2025)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Against the backdrop of President Trump’s on-again/off-again policy moves and mixed messages, we think his 90-day pause on non-China “reciprocal” tariffs last week is confirmation that his top target in the trade war is China, as it likely should be. Since that… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – From Magnificent 7 to European Revival (April 14, 2025)
by Thomas Wash | PDF European equities have long suffered from investor skepticism and been burdened by perceptions of excessive regulation, bureaucratic inertia, and elevated operating costs. These structural challenges have historically overshadowed the region’s fundamental strengths. Yet 2025 has marked a striking reversal, with European stocks delivering exceptional returns that have handily surpassed US… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 11, 2025)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Good morning! Markets are closely tracking the latest trade developments. In sports, Alex Ovechkin has cemented his legacy as the NHL’s all-time leading goal scorer. Today’s Comment will explore why the bond market continues to shrug off inflation data, provide an update… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 10, 2025)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Good morning! Markets are digesting the latest inflation figures while Lionel Messi’s double-strike propelled Inter Miami past LAFC into the CONCACAF semifinals. Today’s Comment will focus on President Trump’s decision to roll back tariffs, insights from the latest Fed minutes, and other… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 9, 2025)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Good morning! The markets remain laser-focused on developments in the escalating trade war. In sports news, Arsenal secured a decisive 3-0 victory over Real Madrid in last night’s Champions League showdown. Today’s Comment will examine the growing anxiety in bond markets, the… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 8, 2025)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Our Comment today opens with some new observations on the global financial markets as they respond to President Trump’s new US tariff regime. We next review several other international and US developments with the potential to affect the financial markets today, including… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Growing Fragility in the US Bloc (April 7, 2025)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF We at Confluence have written extensively on the end of post-Cold War globalization and the fracturing of the world into various geopolitical and economic blocs. We’ve noted that the large, rich bloc led by the United States is an attractive place for investors, but fractured supply chains and rising… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 7, 2025)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Our Comment today opens with the very latest on the Trump administration’s new tariff policies. We next review several other international and US developments with the potential to affect the financial markets today, including potential policy responses to the tariffs from countries… Read More »