Research & News
Daily Comment (October 22, 2025)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Our Comment section opens with a deep dive into the recent drop in gold prices and its stark implications for US-China trade tensions. We then explore the potential pathway to persuading Russia to end the war in Ukraine. Closer to home, a… Read More »
Asset Allocation Quarterly (Fourth Quarter 2025)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF We expect no recession over our three-year forecast period, with GDP growth near trend, driven increasingly by business investment. Anticipated fed funds rate cuts will stimulate the economy and address weakening labor markets. Inflation is likely to remain around 3%, above the Fed’s long-term target. Passive flows continue… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 21, 2025)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Our Comment today opens with confirmation that the Japanese parliament has formally approved Sanae Takaichi as Japan’s first female prime minister. We next review several other international and US developments with the potential to affect the financial markets today, including a big… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 20, 2025)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Our Comment today opens with news that Japan’s ruling party has struck a coalition deal that will allow conservative and investor favorite Sanae Takaichi to become the new prime minister. We next review several other international and US developments with the potential… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The Debasement Hedge: A Tale of Two Safeties (October 20, 2025)
by Thomas Wash | PDF The surge of gold past the $4,000-per-ounce level in October marks a definitive pivot in market behavior. Unlike past rallies driven by stock market fear, the current move is distinctly characterized by a structural rotation away from sovereign debt and toward tangible assets. This is not a simple risk-off move.… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 17, 2025)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Our Comment opens with a deep dive into emerging credit quality concerns that could signal vulnerability within the financial system. We then pivot to US diplomacy, assessing the latest efforts to broker a resolution in Ukraine. Our coverage also unpacks two key… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 16, 2025)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Our Comment begins with Treasury Secretary Bessent’s analysis of China’s export restrictions and his recommendations for bolstering the US negotiating position ahead of trade talks. We then provide an overview of the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book, followed by an examination of the… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 15, 2025)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Our Comment begins with the latest escalation in US-China trade tensions. We then analyze shifting monetary policy expectations and the market’s growing conviction for an imminent rate cut. Our coverage continues with an examination of sustained AI infrastructure investment, potential regulatory moves… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 14, 2025)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Our Comment today opens with yet another blow-up in the US-China trade war, with Beijing imposing sanctions on South Korean firms that allegedly assisted a US probe into the Chinese shipping industry. We next review several other international and US developments with… Read More »