Research & News
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Blocs, Spheres, Empires, and Colonies (January 26, 2026)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF We at Confluence have long tracked how voters in the United States are increasingly recoiling at the costs of global hegemony, i.e., the US’s traditional role as the big, dominant country that provides international security, order, and the reserve currency. We’ve shown that as voters became angry at the… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 26, 2026)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Our Comment today opens with notes on the new record price for gold above $5,000 per ounce and a related drop in the value of the dollar today. We next review several other international and US developments with the potential to affect… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 23, 2026)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Our Comment begins with the recent shift in US foreign policy toward increased interventionism, with a focus on Cuba. We also examine the finalization of the TikTok deal, the cooling of trade tensions between the EU and US, and the progress of… Read More »
Keller Quarterly (January 2026)
Letter to Investors | PDF Happy 2026! While I’m in my fifth decade in the investment business, this is the first year in that spell that Warren Buffett is not the CEO of Berkshire Hathaway. As you probably know, he stepped down from the helm of that company at the end of 2025. Mr. Buffett… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 22, 2026)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Our Comment begins with a look at the White House’s intensifying efforts to reshape the Federal Reserve. We also analyze why the de-escalation over Greenland has not improved US-EU relations. Further analysis explores why investors are discounting corporate earnings beats, the IRGC’s… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 21, 2026)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Our Comment begins with a deep dive into the volatility hitting the Japanese bond market. We then provide an update on the US-EU standoff over Greenland and the potential for a new round of US trade talks with China. Further analysis covers… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 20, 2026)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Our Comment today opens with the latest on the Greenland purchase dispute, which has driven down asset values around the globe. We next review several other international and US developments with the potential to affect the financial markets today, including more evidence… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The Great Silver Short Squeeze (January 20, 2026)
by Thomas Wash | PDF There is perhaps no market force more fearsome than a true short squeeze. In our increasingly digitized financial world, a perilous gap often emerges between “paper” positions and physical reality. A short squeeze occurs when entities that have sold a promise to deliver an asset, be it a stock, a… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 16, 2026)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Note: Due to the holiday, there will be no Comment on Monday, January 19. Our Comment begins by examining the resurgence of enthusiasm around artificial intelligence. We then analyze key domestic and international developments, including new signals from Federal Reserve officials on… Read More »