Research & News
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Mid-Year Geopolitical Outlook (June 22, 2026)
by the Confluence Macroeconomic Team | PDF As the first half draws to a close, we typically update our geopolitical outlook for the remainder of the year. This report is less a series of predictions than it is a list of potential geopolitical issues that we think will dominate the international landscape for the rest… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 22, 2026)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Our Comment today opens with a recap of key events over the weekend in the US-Israeli war against Iran. We next review several other international and US developments that could affect the financial markets today, including the increasing risk of a trade… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 18, 2026)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Our Comment will focus primarily on the Federal Reserve meeting and the outlook for monetary policy under new leadership. We begin by examining potential shifts in the Fed’s operating framework, including a possible pullback in forward guidance. We then turn to the… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 17, 2026)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Our Comment opens with a discussion of how the United States is leveraging AI capabilities to keep key allies within its strategic orbit. We then turn to the Federal Reserve, outlining our views on its next policy direction. Next, we provide briefings… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 16, 2026)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Our Comment today opens with the latest on the US-Israeli war against Iran, including news that the US will support a rebuilding fund for Iran. We next review several other international and US developments that could affect the financial markets today, including… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 15, 2026)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Our Comment today opens with some observations about the reported US-Iran deal to extend their current ceasefire. Importantly, we think investors should consider the deal highly fragile and not necessarily enough to prevent a further spike in energy prices. On a news… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – China Cuts Its Energy Imports (June 15, 2026)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF As we’ve noted before, the most immediate economic and financial market risk from the Iran war is the possibility of further price hikes for oil, natural gas, and some other commodities that depend heavily on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Because of the war, the strait has now… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 12, 2026)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Our Comment opens with a discussion of the ECB’s decision to raise rates and its potential implications for other central banks. We then turn to the ongoing talks of renewing the USMCA before covering SpaceX’s anticipated IPO, and the latest developments in… Read More »