Research & News
Weekly Geopolitical Report – War Gaming: Part I (January 9, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady (Due to Martin Luther King Jr. Day, Part II of this report will be published on January 23.) One of the key elements of global hegemony is the ability of a nation to project power. Ideally, this means a potential hegemon needs local security. In other words, a nation that faces significant proximate… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 9, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] It was a rather quiet weekend. We are seeing a drop in oil prices this morning attributed to reports that production in Northern Iraq, which is under Kurdish control, may be rising. It was never certain whether the Kurds would cooperate and the worry… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (January 6, 2017)
by Asset Allocation Committee Over the holiday, I had the pleasure of reading Sebastian Mallaby’s recent biography of Alan Greenspan.[1] The book was thoroughly researched and well-written, and I recommend it to our readers, albeit with fair warning—it’s long and the endnotes are critical to fully understanding the points of the work. Here are the key… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 6, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Happy employment data day! We have the details below but, in general, the data was mostly in line with expectations. We did see a bit of wage growth which has been bearish for bonds but supportive for the dollar. U.S. crude oil inventories fell… Read More »
Asset Allocation Quarterly (First Quarter 2017)
The November elections have had a significant impact on the financial markets. It is important to watch how policies from the new administration unfold. We don’t expect new policies to rapidly accelerate economic growth. However, we do expect growth to improve modestly in 2017. Our equity allocations are entirely domestic. We shift allocations toward large… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 5, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Initial comments from the Fed minutes yesterday suggested they were somewhat hawkish. Market action this morning, especially the dollar’s retreat, has led commentators to suggest that the minutes were, in fact, dovish. We suspect they were neither. The FOMC is in the same situation… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 4, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] It was mostly quiet overnight. Perhaps the most interesting news came from National Front Leader Marine Le Pen, who indicated that she would want a single currency in Europe to continue even if France leaves the Eurozone. Le Pen has said before that if… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 3, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Happy New Year! We’re back… After some profit-taking into year’s end, the first trading day of the year is starting off with a return to mid-December trends—long-term interest rates are rising, the dollar is up and U.S. equities are up as well. The dollar’s… Read More »
Quarterly Energy Comment (December 30, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady The Market Oil prices have broken above their $44 to $52 per barrel trading range in the wake of the recent OPEC output agreement. OPEC In a reversal of recent policy, Saudi Arabia spearheaded an agreement to cut oil production. OPEC has agreed to cut production by about 1.3 mbpd and select… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (December 23, 2016)
by Asset Allocation Committee Due to the upcoming holidays, the next edition of this report will be published on January 6, 2017. The Fed gave us a modest hawkish surprise last week, calling for three rate hikes in 2017 rather than two. The news has boosted Treasury yields and lifted the dollar. Equities mostly absorbed the… Read More »