Research & News
Daily Comment (April 24, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It was an unusually quiet night. After a barrage of tweets recently, the president appears occupied with his French visitor for now, which might account for the current “tweet silence.” Earnings are coming in stronger than expected (see above), while Treasury yields remain elevated. Here is… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Reflections on Globalization: Part III (April 23, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady This week, we will conclude our series on globalization with a discussion of how China and Russia threaten U.S. hegemony, the potential responses and close with market ramifications. China, Russia, the U.S. and Hegemony U.S. policymakers, heeding the Washington Consensus, assumed that developing nations would eventually adopt both market economics and representative democracy. … Read More »
Daily Comment (April 23, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It was a very busy weekend. This morning, 10-year T-note yields briefly touched 3.00% and remain near that level. The dollar is higher on somewhat soft European PMI data. Here is what we are watching this morning: North Korean thaw: Kim Jong-un said his nation would… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (April 20, 2018)
by Asset Allocation Committee The Trump administration has made it a key policy goal to reduce the trade deficit. The reasoning is that reducing the trade deficit will boost jobs in areas that have been adversely affected by foreign competition. Although this might be true (trade is very complicated), the risk is that trade restrictions will… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 20, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It was a mostly quiet overnight session. Here is what we are watching this morning: Policy talk boosts greenback: Dovish comments from the ECB and BOE have lifted the dollar this morning. The ECB is considering delaying the path of tapering due to recent economic weakness… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 19, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Castro era coming to an end: Today, Raul Castro, brother of Fidel Castro, is expected to step down as Cuba’s president. Castro will be replaced by his vice president, Miguel Diaz-Canel Bermudez, but will still retain his role as head of the Communist Party until… Read More »
Keller Quarterly (April 2018)
Letter to Investors As you well know, the U.S. stock market has been selling off for about ten weeks now. From some of the calls I’ve been getting, one would expect that another Great Crash is upon us. There is little evidence to suggest, however, that this is anything more than a normal correction in… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 18, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Equity markets are quietly ticking higher. Earnings remain strong. Although there wasn’t much market news, there was a great deal of other news. Here is what we are watching: Pompeo to Pyongyang: Over Easter, CIA Director and SOS nominee Mike Pompeo was dispatched to North Korea… Read More »
Asset Allocation Quarterly (Second Quarter 2018)
Near-term expectations for earnings growth resulting from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 remain heightened. Continued Fed policy tightening, through measured increases in the fed funds rate and reductions in the size of the Fed’s balance sheet, is not expected to weigh on the economy over the next two years. Our outlook for… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 17, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It was mostly quiet overnight. Continued robust earnings are lifting equities this morning. Here is what we are watching: Abe to Florida: Japanese PM Abe will meet today with President Trump at Mar-a-Lago. The meetings come at a difficult time for Japan. Abe is facing domestic… Read More »