Research & News
Daily Comment (October 26, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning! Concerns over earnings are weighing on equities, and Astros manager Dusty Baker announced that he is retiring. Today’s Comment begins with a discussion about the ECB’s latest rate decision. Next, we analyze the recent plunge in the yen and assess… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 25, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning! S&P 500 futures are trading lower before the open and the Diamondbacks made it to the World Series for the second time in franchise history. Today’s Comment starts with a discussion about the resurgence of the S&P 500. Next, we… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 24, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Our Comment today opens with an update on the Israel-Hamas conflict. We next review a range of other international and U.S. developments with the potential to affect the financial markets today, including weak economic indicators in the eurozone and the United Kingdom,… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 23, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Our Comment today opens with the latest on the Israel-Hamas fighting, where we continue to keep our eyes open for signs that it could spread into a broader regional conflict. We next review a wide range of other international and U.S. developments… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – A Regime Change in Bonds? (October 23, 2023)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Jim Bullard, former president of the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, based his policy votes and economic analysis, in part, on a concept known as regimes. Our take on his concept is that an edifice of factors underly clearly observable correlations in markets, and when this edifice changes,… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 20, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning! Equities are off to a rough start, while the Houston Astros and Texas Rangers are tied in the ALCS. Today’s Comment begins with our analysis of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments at the Economic Club of New York. We then… Read More »
Asset Allocation Quarterly (Fourth Quarter 2023)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Our three-year forecast includes a relatively mild recession followed by a recovery and the prospect for an economic expansion. Geopolitical tensions are elevated with heightened potential for increased turmoil in the Middle East. Inflation should moderate in the near-term but may reaccelerate within the forecast period due to… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 19, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning! Equities are mixed this morning, and the Las Vegas Aces are the new WNBA champions. Today’s Comment begins with our thoughts on why investors will be paying close attention to Powell’s speech today. Next, we explain why investors have preferred… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (October 19, 2023)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Continued tensions in the Middle East are supporting crude oil prices. (Source: Barchart.com) Commercial crude oil inventories fell 4.5 mb compared to forecasts of a 0.6 mb draw. The SPR was unchanged, which puts the net draw at 4.5 mb. In the details, U.S.… Read More »