Research & News
Weekly Energy Update (September 28, 2023)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Oil prices are breaking out, raising the potential for a move toward $95 per barrel. (Source: Barchart.com) Commercial crude oil inventories fell 2.2 mb compared to forecasts of a 2.0 mb build. The SPR fell 0.3 mb, which puts the net draw at 2.4… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 27, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Our Comment today opens with the latest on the prospects for a partial shutdown of the U.S. government starting this weekend due to budget gridlock. We next review a wide range of other international and U.S. developments with the potential to affect… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 26, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Our Comment today opens with a new report from the International Energy Agency that could further discourage needed investments in fossil fuel supplies and could help drive energy prices even higher in the coming years. We then review a wide range of… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 25, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Our Comment today opens with the latest on Canada’s allegations that India assassinated a Canadian citizen in British Columbia in June. The resulting strain on Canadian-Indian relations could have big implications for the U.S.’s effort to use India as an economic and… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – Where’s the Recession? A Recap (September 25, 2023)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Precise recession forecasting is really difficult. Most recessions occur during periods of tightening monetary policy; however, history shows that monetary policy works with “long and variable lags,” meaning that the impact of rising interest rates doesn’t lead to consistent timing of downturns. It’s a bit like wanting to… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 22, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning! Today’s Comment is divided into three sections: 1) Why the BOJ may not change policy anytime soon; 2) How the media narrative may either help or hurt strikers; and 3) Why improved relations with Saudi Arabia and Israel may help… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 21, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning! Today’s Comment is split into three sections: 1) How the Federal Reserve’s latest rate decision will impact its policy for next year; 2) Why governments may be forced to moderate some of their climate goals; and 3) Why support for… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (September 21, 2023)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Oil prices have continued their rise, with Brent trending toward $95 per barrel. Recent extensions of the production cuts by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) have boosted prices. (Source: Barchart.com) Commercial crude oil inventories fell 2.1 mb compared to forecasts of a 1.7… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 20, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Our Comment today opens with the evolving relationship between the European Union and China. We next review a range of other international and U.S. developments with the potential to affect the financial markets today, including a short military operation in the Caucasus… Read More »