Research & News
Asset Allocation Weekly (February 12, 2021)
by Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Jan Tinbergen was a Dutch economist, the first to win the Nobel Prize for economics[1] for his work on applied dynamic models of economic processes. Perhaps his most important contribution to economic policy is the penning of the Tinbergen Rule, which states that policymakers need an equal number of… Read More »
Daily Comment (February 11, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] | PDF Good morning! Equity futures are higher again this morning. Our coverage begins with policy, where we look at Chair Powell’s comments and the controversy over the size of the stimulus. China news comes next; President Biden and General Secretary Xi… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (February 11, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Here is an updated crude oil price chart. Prices continue to rise. Crude oil inventories fell 6.6 mb when a draw of 0.8 mb was forecast. The SPR fell 0.2 mb, meaning the draw in commercial inventories was 6.8 mb. In the details, U.S.… Read More »
Daily Comment (February 10, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] | PDF Our Comment today opens with several items reflecting rising geopolitical risks, mostly related to China and Russia. There is further evidence of increased regulatory and political risk for the major U.S. technology firms, which could present them with increasing headwinds… Read More »
Daily Comment (February 9, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] | PDF Our Comment today opens with news of a concerning computer hack on a public utility in Florida. We discuss more evidence that the Biden administration is focused on building international alliances against Chinese geopolitical aggression, along with more signs of… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The U.S.-China Balance of Power: Part IV (February 8, 2021)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF (Note: Due to the Presidents’ Day holiday, our next WGR will be published on February 22.) This multi-part report aims to assess the current balance of power between the U.S. and China and what that implies for how the competition may play out in the coming years. Part I… Read More »
Daily Comment (February 8, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] | PDF Good morning, and Happy Monday! Congrats to Tampa Bay. U.S. equity futures continue to tick higher. Our coverage this morning starts with economic and policy news. Updates on Europe come next, followed by an overview of international news—we touch on… Read More »
Daily Comment (February 5, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] | PDF Good morning. U.S. equity futures are higher this morning, the yield curve has steepened, and oil prices have risen as optimism grows over another round of fiscal stimulus. We begin our discussion with possible student loan forgiveness and an update… Read More »