Research & News

Quarterly Energy Comment (November 18, 2015)

by Bill O’Grady The Market Over the past year, oil prices fell sharply into the first quarter, remained rangebound from January through March, rallied above $60 per barrel in the spring and early summer, and then slid to new lows in August.  Since the August lows, prices have been in a range between the high… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – Political Turmoil in Portugal (November 16, 2015)

by Kaisa Stucke, CFA Portugal held parliamentary elections on October 4, 2015, in which the incumbent center-right Social Democratic Party received the most votes but fell short of an outright majority.  Historically, as part of the Portuguese political process, the country’s president tasks the party that receives the most votes with forming a government.  However, in… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – EU Migrant Crisis: Focus on Hungary (November 2, 2015)

by Kaisa Stucke, CFA There is no doubt that the EU migrant crisis is a catastrophe in terms of human costs.  It is fairly evident that the EU was not prepared to deal with the magnitude of migrant movement into the region.  This crisis also presents a political dilemma for Europe and may lead to the… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Obama Doctrine: Moneyball America (October 26, 2015)

by Bill O’Grady Over the past three years, we have witnessed what appears to be a steady erosion of American power.  Russia annexed the Crimea and has encouraged a rebellion in eastern Ukraine, undermining the sovereignty of a European nation.  This apparent invasion was considered by Western observers to be the first hostile acquisition of territory… Read More »

Asset Allocation Quarterly (Fourth Quarter 2015)

The Federal Reserve decided not to raise rates in the third quarter. Attention now turns to if, when and how it will raise rates going forward. Although we expect the Fed to move gradually and not cause a recession, the likelihood of policy errors has increased. We continue to believe both growth and inflation are… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – The TPP (October 19, 2015)

by Bill O’Grady On October 6, trade negotiators announced a final agreement for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), a multilateral trade deal between 12 Pacific Rim nations in both the eastern and western hemispheres. In this report, we will begin by discussing the nations involved.  We will examine some of the details of the treaty.  An analysis… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – “Catalonia, a New State within Europe”? (October 12, 2015)

by Kaisa Stucke, CFA “Catalonia, a new state within Europe” is the slogan of the pro-independence secession movement in the Spanish region of Catalonia.  Catalonia has always pined for more autonomy, but calls for secession have intensified as the Spanish economy has suffered from slow growth and corruption scandals have discredited the central government.  At the… Read More »

Keller Quarterly (October 2015)

Letter to Investors Back before talk radio became the domain of either political opinionates or “shock talkers,” it was dominated by the friendly conversation of morning humorists in the path established by Arthur Godfrey.  Here in St. Louis, a very funny fellow named Jack Carney dominated the airwaves in the mid-morning for a generation.  At… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – Putin and Syria (October 5, 2015)

by Bill O’Grady Last month, Russia moved a significant amount of military hardware into areas of Syria controlled by the Assad regime.  The action caught the Obama administration by surprise and raises questions about what Russian President Putin is trying to accomplish. In this report, we will examine Russia’s short-term geostrategic goals and the tactics Putin… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – El Niño Update (September 28, 2015)

by Kaisa Stucke, CFA Meteorologists have been calling for an El Niño event since last year.  Current forecasts place the likelihood of an El Niño occurrence this winter at over 90%.  Now, talk has turned from the likelihood of an El Niño to whether the abnormal weather pattern event will be super-sized or monster-sized.  Water temperatures… Read More »

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