Daily Comment
Daily Comment (July 17, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It was another quiet weekend. Here are the news items we are tracking this morning: China economy: GDP, somewhat predictably, came in a bit stronger than expected, at 6.9% (y/y%). It’s important to remember that China can generate any growth number it wants as long as… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 14, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The CPI data came in weaker than expected, sending the dollar and Treasury yields lower. We examine the data in the context of policy using our Mankiw model variations below. Outside the inflation numbers, here are some of the other news issues we are tracking this… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 13, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Here’s what we are watching today: Yellen, Round 2: There was nothing in Yellen’s testimony that differed from her opening statement which the markets took as dovish. Our comments yesterday appear to be mostly confirmed; the FOMC is shifting to emphasizing balance sheet reduction and less… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 12, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The Chair speaks: The text of Chair Yellen’s comments has been released in front of her testimony to Congress. Market reaction is consistent with a dovish stance. Here is the excerpt that is probably triggering the weaker dollar/stronger equities/stronger Treasuries/higher gold trade: …based on our view… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 11, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s another quiet summertime morning. Here are the headlines we are watching: It’s official—Randal Quarles is likely the newest Fed governor: The Trump administration formally nominated Quarles for the chair vacated by Dan Tarullo. His name has been in the media for several weeks, so the… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 10, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Monday! It’s officially mid-summer as baseball’s All-Star Game will be held tomorrow. Global markets are rather quiet this morning. Here are the headlines: G-20: The U.S. is becoming steadily isolated in the world as per the design of the Trump administration (and, to be fair,… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 7, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy employment day! The employment data is covered in detail below but the snapshot of the data is supportive. Payrolls rose 222k compared to forecasts of 178k; we also saw a 47k upward revision, making the report robust. The unemployment rate came in at 4.4% versus… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 6, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s a fairly quiet morning, typical of mid-summer. Here are the issues we are watching: Fed minutes: Most of the media recaps focused on the reduction of the balance sheet. As we have noted in the past, in theory, this action shouldn’t be a big deal. … Read More »
Daily Comment (July 5, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Back to work! Here are the items we are following this morning: North Korea’s ICBM: Over the holiday, North Korea launched an ICBM that is at least capable of reaching Hawaii and Alaska and could hit much of Asia, along with northern Australia. Although there is… Read More »