Daily Comment (September 9, 2025)

by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash

[Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF

Our Comment today opens with news of a potentially fundamental change in US defense strategy that could have large implications for the country’s foreign relations, economy, and financial markets. We next review several other international and US developments with the potential to affect the financial markets today, including the latest on the search for new prime ministers in Japan and France and a sobering report on how long it may take US firms to see a positive return on their current investments in artificial intelligence.

US Defense Strategy: New reporting says the Pentagon’s draft defense strategy would prioritize domestic missions, homeland defense, and protection of the Americas region over preparing to fight major foreign rivals such as China and Russia. Although the strategy could still be revised, it appears that the current version is calling for the US to end its traditional role as the global hegemon and instead focus on being a regional hegemon, probably relying on the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans and the US nuclear arsenal to deter longer-range threats.

  • The apparent strategy change is surprising because the document is being developed by Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Elbridge Colby, who has long advocated for the US to focus its military on the potential threat from China. Like other Republican China hawks, Colby has argued for shifting military resources from Europe and the Middle East to the Asia-Pacific, not to the Americas.
  • If the strategy shift is finalized, a key question is what it means for future US defense spending and the economic and financial prospects of the defense industry. As we’ve noted before, isolationist sentiment in parts of the administration’s political base could force eventual defense spending cuts, even as new military technologies lead to smaller orders for major, expensive weapon systems such as aircraft carriers and bombers.
  • At the same time, we think that the prospect of the US pulling back from its foreign defense commitments will continue to prompt foreign nations to hike their own spending. Some of those new orders will likely go to major US defense contractors, but the bulk will likely go to foreign defense firms.
  • That validates our longstanding expectation that European and Asian defense firms could be especially well placed to enjoy increased sales, bigger profits, and higher stock prices than their US counterparts.

Japan: Yesterday, Toshimitsu Motegi, the former secretary-general of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, became the first Japanese politician to say he will contend to replace Prime Minister Ishiba as head of the LDP and the government following his resignation on Sunday. Several other top politicians are also expected to throw their hats into the ring in the coming days, including the investor favorite, free-market advocate and former Economic Security Minister Sanae Takaichi.

China: On the sidelines of the Munich Auto Show yesterday, the executive vice-president of Chinese electric-vehicle giant BYD said about 100 of the country’s carmakers would have to be pushed out of business for the industry to stabilize. The statement comes as Beijing starts taking top-down steps to rein in the country’s growing problem with excessive industrial capacity and debilitating price wars in many industries. However, some observers believe that even putting 100 carmakers out of business would leave China with too many auto firms.

Indonesia: Following last month’s widespread protests against government corruption and lawmaker privileges, President Prabowo Subianto yesterday fired longtime Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati. The firing of the respected finance official suggests the president may be considering looser fiscal spending to curry favor with voters. Reflecting the threat to financial discipline, Indonesia’s benchmark stock index fell approximately 1.8% today, while the rupiah has weakened about 1.0% against the US dollar.

European Union: ASML, the Dutch maker of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, has announced that it will invest 1.3 billion EUR ($1.5 billion) in the French artificial intelligence start-up Mistral to help foster its “strategic technology.” As the US and China battle for the lead in AI technology and development, leaving other major countries in their dust, the ASML-Mistral deal illustrates how European countries are scrambling to catch up, or at least avoid falling into irrelevance.

France: As previewed in our Comment yesterday, Prime Minister Bayrou did lose yesterday’s no-confidence vote in parliament, with 364 of the 577 lawmakers voting against him. President Macron today will accept Bayrou’s resignation and may announce a nominee to replace him. Even so, whoever accepts the poisoned chalice to try to become the next prime minister will face the same challenges of a fractured parliament and strong resistance to economic reform, which will likely weigh on French asset values and push bond yields higher.

US Labor Force: According to the Department of Education, high schoolers’ average math and reading scores in the National Assessment of Educational Progress for 2024 fell to their lowest levels on record. The share of 12th graders rated as “proficient” or above also declined, to just 22% in math and 35% in reading. Such abysmally low levels of proficiency have long been seen as an Achilles heel for the US that will leave companies without the educated workers they need to reindustrialize and compete globally in high technology and the sciences.

US Artificial Intelligence: Julie Sweet, CEO of consulting giant Accenture, said in an interview with Axios that it will probably take several years for US companies to really see a positive return on their AI investments. According to Sweet, that’s because it will take time for firms to retrain their workforces and revamp their operations to make full use of the technology. The statement is consistent with other recent studies and commentaries that have warned that the payoff from AI may be further in the future, creating some risk of a pullback in AI-related stocks.

View PDF

Daily Comment (September 8, 2025)

by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash

[Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF

Our Comment today opens with yet another production hike from a key group of oil producers, which will likely help keep a lid on global energy costs and help offset the impact of other types of rising prices. We next review several other international and US developments with the potential to affect the financial markets today, including the resignation of Japan’s prime minister and a surge in US corporate bond issuance now that it seems clear the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates later this month.

Global Oil Supply: A subset of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Nations and its Russia-led partners yesterday said they’ll boost their collective oil production by 137,000 barrels per day starting in October, marking the latest in a string of increases. With economic growth slowing, the small output hike is expected to help keep the global economy well supplied with oil and will likely hold down energy prices. The countries hiking production include Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman.

Japan: Prime Minister Ishiba yesterday said he will resign, finally succumbing to pressure from within his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) to take responsibility for its loss in the July parliamentary elections. The decision came one day before the LDP was to hold an early leadership election, which Ishiba could well have lost. The party will now probably select a successor for Ishiba in October. In the meantime, Japanese security and economic policy will likely be on hold, but Japanese stock prices have surged to a new record high on optimism about any Ishiba successor.

  • Potential successors for Ishiba include Agriculture Minister Shinjirō Koizumi, the son of former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, who in 2001-2006 laid much of the groundwork for Japan’s eventual economic resurgence.
  • Other possible successors include Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi, a moderate and the protégé of former Prime Minister Kishida, and the ultraconservative former Economic Security Minister Sanae Takaichi.

China: The Chinese Communist Party announced on Friday that Yi Huiman, chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) from 2019 to 2024, is being investigated for “severe breaches of discipline.” That makes Yi the latest Chinese stock market regulator to come under a cloud because of corruption, incompetence, or both. The streak of probes highlights the challenge General Secretary Xi faces as he tries to transform China into a “financial superpower” and make its stock market more attractive to domestic and foreign investors.

Taiwan: New reports say the Taiwanese military is making rapid progress on a Ukraine-inspired “high-low” attack drone strategy to deter a potential invasion by China. For the top end of the force, the Taiwanese have modified a low-cost, legacy training missile into a loitering strike drone with a range of 1,000 km, enough to hit cites such as Beijing and Shanghai. For the low end, they are also developing cheap, expendable, AI-enabled drones that can be used to swarm the invading Chinese.

  • Many foreign military observers have decried Taiwan’s weak preparations to resist a Chinese takeover, citing problems such as big purchases of the wrong types of weapons to insufficient troop training. However, Ukraine’s success in blunting Russia’s invasion has evidently provided a potentially viable roadmap for how Taiwan could deter China.
  • The development also offers further evidence of how AI-enabled drones and drone swarms continue to change the nature of warfare. This could potentially upend the current balance of power among national militaries and possibly create enticing new investment opportunities in defense industry.

France: Prime Minister Bayrou today faces a no-confidence vote in parliament over his unpopular deficit-cutting proposal, and he is widely expected to be toppled. That would force President Macron to name his fifth prime minister in the last two years. It would also further paralyze the fractured French parliament and make it even harder to push through reforms to straighten out the country’s finances. As a result, French government bond yields have now risen to their highest level since the eurozone debt crisis more than a decade ago.

United Kingdom: An interesting article in the Wall Street Journal today suggests the UK and its surging bond yields could be the “canary in the coal mine” regarding investor concerns about growing debt costs in major developed countries. The analysis points to a risk that rising debt and slow economic growth in countries such as the US and France could also undermine investor confidence and drive longer-term bond yields even higher over time.

Argentina: In an election yesterday, the opposition Peronists won approximately 47.0% of the vote in the major province of Buenos Aires, while President Milei’s libertarian La Libertad Avanza party won 33.9%. The lopsided win for the opposition was far worse than expected, setting the stage for Milei’s party to suffer major losses in the midterm elections in October 2026. That possibility could prompt Milei to water down some of his anti-statist, pro-capitalist economic policies over the coming year.

US Immigration Policy: In an interview with Axios, US Citizenship and Immigration Services Director Joseph Edlow said he plans to significantly toughen the civics test used to vet foreign nationals applying to become citizens, arguing the current citizenship process is too easy. Edlow also revealed that he has revoked some citizenship approvals granted previously and planned to “denaturalize” more people going forward. Edlow’s statements illustrate how new US policies don’t just involve cutting illegal immigration, but also involve rolling back legal entry.

  • Reducing legal and illegal immigration has the potential to create labor shortages in certain industries, thereby weighing on economic growth, at least in the near term.
  • On the other hand, as US labor demand weakens and firms start to lay off more workers, pushing out the immigrant workers could create opportunities for native-born employees who lose their jobs. In turn, that could limit any associated rise in the unemployment rate.

US Bond Market: With the Fed set to cut its benchmark interest rate later this month, reports indicate companies are rushing to issue corporate bonds and take advantage of investor demand for higher yielding obligations. For the month to date, firms have issued some $56.4 billion of investment-grade bonds and $9.6 billion in junk bonds, for the strongest such period since early March. Investor demand for the obligations has driven the spread between corporate yields and US Treasury yields down to their lowest level in two years.

US Health Insurance Market: New analysis by Mercer indicates health insurers are on track to hike premiums for corporate health plans by about 6.5% in 2026, marking the biggest jump in 15 years. A separate report says that people who buy their health insurance on government exchanges will see their premiums jump about 18.0%. The big hikes are likely to buoy the consumer price index and keep inflation uncomfortably high.

View PDF

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The Cap-Weighted and Equal-Weighted S&P 500 (September 8, 2025)

by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF

There are many ways to describe the strong performance in large cap US stock prices this year. You could simply call it a bull market, with the S&P 500 total return index up 31.2% since its low in early April and up 11.5% year-to-date. The strong buying pressure could even be called a “euphoria.” With continued gains, it would be no surprise if some observers started referring to it as a return to the type of “irrational exuberance” seen in the 1990s. In any case, the market is exhibiting strong momentum, especially in the growthy sectors such as Information Technology and Communication Services. Indeed, investors now widely understand that the lion’s share of the uptrend this year has come from just a few stocks within those sectors, i.e., the Magnificent 7. A key question is whether these trends will continue. And to the extent that there is a risk of these trends reversing, is there a good way to hedge the associated downside risk?

The growth of index investing in recent decades is probably one reason for the outperformance of large cap growth stocks like the Mag 7. Many individual and institutional investors simply channel their US large cap stock investments into funds tracking the S&P 500 Index, where each holding is weighted by the stock’s total market capitalization. Funds channeled into this version of the S&P 500 go disproportionately to those stocks with big market caps, especially the Mag 7, helping them appreciate even more. But there is also a version of the S&P 500 in which the allocation to each stock is an equal 0.2% — the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index. In this methodology, stocks with smaller capitalizations and more “value” characteristics have a higher representation than they do in the capitalization-weighted version. If we compare the performance of the cap-weighted S&P 500 to that of its equal-weighted counterpart, we can get a sense of the relative advantages or disadvantages of each index during different market scenarios.

In the upper panel of the following chart, we show the S&P 500’s total return index in both its cap-weighted and equal-weighted forms, with each based to 100 in January 1990. The figure shows that over the last 35 years, the equal-weighted variation of the S&P 500 has produced a meaningfully higher total return than the market cap-weighted one. (Consistent with finance theory, the higher return for the equal-weighted index also comes with a higher standard deviation.)

Importantly, the relative performance of the two indexes changes over time. In the bottom panel of the chart, the light blue line shows the relative performance of the equal-weighted index to that of the version weighted by market cap. We have also included the Case-Shiller cyclically adjusted price/earnings ratio as a measure of average stock valuation.

In the bottom panel, the long downtrends in the blue line from 1995 to 2000 and from 2015 to the present coincide with periods of intense market enthusiasm, strong momentum in big, popular growth stocks, and lagging performance in relatively smaller, less growthy stocks. These periods generally happen when investors are pouring funds into the market and driving up valuations. In these periods, including the present, it can be tempting for investors to just focus on the large cap growth stocks driving the market. However, the chart clearly shows that when market enthusiasm eventually reverses and investors pull out of the market, the relative advantage of the equal-weight index snaps back sharply. This reflects the sudden sell-off in trending, growthy, highly weighted stocks during such periods. In sum, the bottom panel illustrates how concentration risk increases in long, strong bull markets. This tends to set the stage for sharp portfolio declines when markets go into reverse, even for investors who think they are well diversified because they are invested in the cap-weighted S&P 500.

The lesson from this discussion is that while fast-rising large cap growth stocks like the Mag 7 may still have some momentum left, investors should also consider broad diversification with meaningful exposure to undervalued and overlooked stocks, which could have the potential for solid, longer-run returns.

View PDF

Don’t miss our accompanying podcasts, available on our website and most podcast platforms: Apple | Spotify 

Daily Comment (September 5, 2025)

by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash

[Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF

Our Comment opens with a discussion on the deepening relationship between Silicon Valley and Washington by examining recent political and economic developments. Additional key topics to review will include Stephen Miran’s Senate confirmation hearing, China’s new tariffs on EU pork imports, and escalating tensions between the US and Venezuela. We’ll also provide a summary of recent international and domestic economic data releases to give a complete picture of the current financial landscape.

United Chip Policy: The president hosted a dinner for Silicon Valley leaders in the White House Rose Garden on Thursday, where he called on them to increase their spending on AI. He also used the event to announce his intention to impose significant new tariffs on semiconductor chips. In a statement on Thursday, the president said the duties would be “fairly substantial” and that an official announcement with more details would be imminent.

  • The dinner served as a clear signal of the government’s strategy to deepen its partnership with the private sector in the race for AI dominance. The United States views China as its principal rival and is relying on the expertise and financial strength of Silicon Valley to ensure that it maintains a technological edge, not just for the economy, but for military applications as well. This collaboration is a key component of the nation’s effort to secure its dominance in the global AI landscape.
  • To enhance US capacity, the government has used its trade policy to incentivize foreign investment in American infrastructure. Most recently, the president finalized a deal with Japan through an executive order. This agreement commits Japan to invest $550 billion in exchange for a reduction in US tariffs, including a cut on autos tariffs from 25% to 15%. This deal operates under the condition that a failure by Japan to meet the investment goal would result in the re-imposition of higher tariffs.
  • Spurred by this trend, a strategic push for supply chain sovereignty is taking shape through key industry partnerships. A prime example is the newly announced collaboration between OpenAI and US-based Broadcom to co-develop custom AI chips, creating a viable domestic alternative to Nvidia. This effort signals more than just competition; it underscores a fundamental shift in corporate strategy toward bolstering US self-sufficiency by prioritizing and nurturing local suppliers in critical technologies.
  • The deepening collaboration between the public and private sectors will likely provide support for equities, particularly for large tech companies, as the government acts to mitigate systemic risks. While this environment should allow growth stocks to maintain their momentum, firms will also face new cost pressures as they adapt to this “new normal.” Consequently, we believe that complementing a growth strategy with a value approach will be beneficial for diversification.

Miran Confirmation Hearing: The White House’s nominee for the Federal Reserve Governor, Stephen Miran, testified before the Senate on Thursday, addressing concerns about the president’s potential influence. He pushed back against claims that the president would sway his policy decisions, but he also affirmed the president’s right to have an opinion. Markets reacted positively to his comments, seeming to grow confident that Miran would be confirmed and be a reliable vote for future rate cuts.

  • He faced tough questions on his commitment to Fed independence, particularly in light of his past proposals to overhaul the central bank, which some viewed as undermining to the Fed’s autonomy. He also tackled concerns about a potential conflict of interest from his role as head of the Council of Economic Advisors, pledging to remain independent and to resign from the Council if his Fed term is renewed in January.
  • Over the past week, growing expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut have boosted both equity and bond prices. We anticipate this trend will continue, provided upcoming job market data justifies the need for easier monetary policy. A significant risk, however, would be if the Fed cuts rates despite an acceleration in economic growth. Such a scenario could lead to a pullback in long-duration US Treasurys, but it could be supportive of large cap US equities.

Peace Deal Near? French President Emmanuel Macron stated that the US is preparing post-war security guarantees for Ukraine, in a signal of confidence that the conflict is nearing its endgame. As part of this strategy, the US may cut funding for military training in nations bordering Russia to incentivize greater European defense spending. This prospect of resolution is a positive catalyst for European equities, which would benefit from reduced geopolitical and energy security risks.

ISM Services: The latest PMI data confirms the economy remains in expansion, rising from 50.1 to 52.0 in August. This increase above the 50.0 threshold indicates a return to growth and a gain in momentum from the previous month. However, the expansion is not without its headwinds; a sharp rise in business activity was accompanied by rising input prices and weak hiring. This combination of robust activity and rising costs presents a challenge for firms, leading us to maintain a cautiously optimistic outlook on the market.

EU-China Trade War: Beijing has implemented 62% tariffs on EU pork, citing anti-dumping violations. This move appears to be retaliation for recent EU tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles. While these tariffs will hurt European exporters, who were already seeing declining sales to China, they may ultimately push the EU to prioritize and develop new export markets, such as those in South America.

German Output: German factory orders unexpectedly fell 2.9% in July, sharply contrasting with forecasts of a 0.5% rise. The decline was driven by a lack of large-scale orders, signaling that firms may be postponing major investments. In response to the weak report, there have been calls for action to address structural challenges, including the country’s energy policy, high non-wage labor costs, and burdensome regulatory framework. Nevertheless, optimism about the broader economic outlook remains positive due to expectations for more government stimulus.

Venezuela-US Tensions: In a provocative move, two Venezuelan aircraft flew dangerously close to a US naval ship, according to the Department of Defense. This action is widely perceived as a retaliatory response to US military strikes against drug cartel ships in the Caribbean. Although the probability of a full-scale conflict between the US and Venezuela remains low, this incident marks a notable escalation of risk and regional instability.

View PDF

Daily Comment (September 4, 2025)

by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash

[Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF

Our Comment opens by analyzing the market’s growing anticipation of a rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting. We then pivot to critical global developments, including rising discontent within the EU Parliament over the US trade deal, the bond market’s concerns regarding the potential rollback of tariffs, and signals that China may intervene to cool its overheated equity market. We conclude with a briefing on other key factors influencing the global financial landscape.

Rate Cut Optimism: Equities received a boost on Wednesday as economic data and recent statements from Fed officials have fueled expectations of an interest rate cut, boosting market confidence. This shift in focus reflects the market’s pivot from trade policy concerns, such as tariffs, to the potential for monetary policy to stimulate investor and consumer sentiment. This is a direct reaction to the belief that a rate cut can more immediately and broadly impact economic activity and offset headwinds from tariffs.

  • The latest JOLTS report signifies a cooling labor market, with unemployed workers now outnumbering job openings for the first time since 2021. This hiring slowdown aligns with unemployment insurance data, which shows modest initial claims but a steady rise in continuing claims. Together, these metrics suggest a cautious “slow-hire, slow-fire” environment where firms are neither aggressively recruiting nor conducting large-scale layoffs, opting instead to maintain their current workforce size.
  • Furthermore, signs of economic pessimism are emerging. The Federal Reserve’s latest Beige Book reported stagnant or slightly negative economic activity across most districts. The primary concern cited was flat-to-declining consumer spending, as household wages failed to keep pace with rising prices. Notably, the report indicated that inflation pressures were now being felt more acutely by firms than by consumers.
  • In response to this weakening trend, Fed Governor Christopher Waller has signaled openness to multiple rate cuts, while Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem have both advocated for at least one, possibly as soon as this fall.
  • We maintain our view that the Federal Reserve perceives current inflationary impacts as transitory and will favor its maximum employment objective. Consequently, we anticipate impending rate cuts. Given the economy’s resilient position, further bolstered by increasingly clear trade policy, these cuts should provide a broad lift to equity markets. We expect this tailwind to benefit risk-sensitive assets most prominently, while also providing support to established large-cap names.

EU Friction: Opposition to the proposed EU-US trade deal is broadening within the European Parliament, with parties across the spectrum demanding changes like a sunset clause. While the deal is still expected to pass, its current criticism — from the left’s claim of “capitulation” to the far-right’s charge of weakness — highlights a lack of political enthusiasm. That said, time will tell if the White House is open to making more concessions.

More US Troops in Poland?: The US is considering increasing its troop presence in Poland to help secure the country’s defense. This decision follows meetings between the White House and Polish leaders to discuss assurances of support, likely anticipating a wind-down of Russia’s war in Ukraine. Notably, these assurances may be driven by Poland’s aggressive pursuit of its defense spending targets, signaling that the US is more willing to bolster nations that commit to developing their own military capabilities.

Tariff Fight: The White House has asked the Supreme Court to intervene to maintain a broad set of tariffs that a lower court ruled illegal. This move underscores the crucial importance of this revenue stream for debt reduction, particularly during a period of heightened fiscal spending. Consequently, a ruling against the government could introduce fresh volatility and contribute to ongoing turmoil in the bond market.

China Stock Rally? Chinese regulators are growing concerned about the resurgence in domestic equities. Much of this rise in valuations appears to be driven by speculation from retail investors and hedge funds, rather than a fundamental rebound in economic activity. These investors, seeking higher returns from abroad, have been drawn to the market by relatively lower interest rates elsewhere. This has led to speculation that regulators may intervene to cool the rally to prevent a speculative bubble from forming.

Macron Under Pressure: French President Emmanuel Macron will resist calls for a snap election if his prime minister loses a no-confidence vote next week, an outcome that is widely expected. The potential appointment of a fifth prime minister since 2024 could be interpreted as a sign of declining confidence in his leadership. Macron’s hesitation to call for new elections stems from the political pressure he faces to implement unpopular budget cuts, as he works to stabilize the country’s finances.

Abraham Accords: The United Arab Emirates has warned the White House that Israel’s planned annexation of the West Bank could jeopardize the Abraham Accords. This marks a new diplomatic phase, as the UAE, a key participant to the accords, has linked its future cooperation to Israel’s policies toward Palestinians. This warning, which follows renewed Israeli statements on annexation, suggests that Israel’s actions could undermine US relationships with its allies, potentially creating an opening for rivals such as China.

Silicon Valley to Capitol Hill: A consortium of top tech executives will meet at the White House for an AI summit, reflecting the sector’s deep integration into US efforts to maintain a competitive edge against China. This gathering is the latest example of a broader, enduring shift towards public-private cooperation, which is moving away from an adversarial dynamic and toward a collaborative model for tackling complex issues. We believe companies that support national security goals will be well-positioned to thrive in this new era of cooperation.

View PDF

Daily Comment (September 3, 2025)

by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash

[Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF

Our Comment opens with our analysis of China’s recent military parade and its implications. We then turn to pivotal global developments, such as the ongoing global bond sell-off, the potential digitization of gold, and Moody’s optimistic outlook on Europe’s private credit markets. Finally, we conclude with an overview of other essential factors shaping the global financial landscape.

China Parade: During its military parade, Beijing unveiled a new arsenal of domestically developed weapons designed to project power and signal its military readiness. The display was a clear signal to the world that China believes it can fend off any attack and possesses the capability to take Taiwan by force if necessary. However, while the technological advancements were impressive, many analysts remain unconvinced of China’s overall military capabilities. During the parade there was a sell-off in Chinese defense stocks.

  • The exhibition demonstrated key breakthroughs in Chinese military tech, particularly in unmanned platforms such as robotic ground vehicles, four-legged drones, and uncrewed naval and aerial vehicles, though it is uncertain how many are fully operational. The display also served to flex China’s advanced capabilities in other domains, including air defense systems, directed-energy weapons (lasers), and its world-leading hypersonic missile program.
  • Of the five key categories in which China would need to demonstrate military superiority — long-range strikes, air dominance, amphibious operations, joint-force coordination, and space/counterspace — China leads the US in only two: long-range strikes and space/counterspace. While China could still inflict serious damage in a conflict, the balance of power suggests the US would likely prevail in a direct confrontation.
  • The parade also served as a powerful demonstration of China’s growing network of strategic partnerships. The presence of Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un alongside Chinese President Xi Jinping was a striking visual symbol. This show of unity signals a deepening alignment among the three countries, which has been particularly apparent in the context of the war in Ukraine, where North Korea has provided military aid to Russia, and China has offered crucial economic support.
  • Although we do not view a military conflict between the US and China as imminent, the significant posturing between the two nations creates a tangible risk of escalation. As this strategic competition intensifies (both militarily and economically), we anticipate that companies aligned with national priorities (e.g., defense, semiconductors, AI, and cybersecurity) will be key beneficiaries. Concurrently, this elevated geopolitical friction is likely to bolster demand for traditional safe-haven assets, such as gold.

Long Bond Sell-Off: A significant long bond sell-off is underway, causing global bond yields to rise as markets begin to price in the dual risks of elevated government debt and potential stagflation. This upward pressure is primarily driven by a fundamental shift in supply and demand, where central banks are actively reducing their bond holdings through quantitative tightening (QT) just as governments are significantly increasing debt issuance to fund fiscal deficits.

  • Rising bond yields are crippling tech stocks by dramatically increasing their cost of capital. These companies have been rewarded by the market for their potential to generate substantial future profits. However, they are now under scrutiny for the immense scale of their capital expenditures, which threaten to diminish future investor returns. This problem is most acute for companies funding massive data center builds for AI and cloud services.
  • We are seeing early signs of a shift toward a regime of fiscal dominance, where central banks may be forced to take a more active role in bond markets to keep government borrowing costs manageable. The primary risk of this policy is that it could require central banks to subordinate their inflation mandates. While this would likely be negative for long-duration bonds, it could simultaneously provide a source of increased demand for short and intermediate-term government securities.

Digital Gold: Efforts are underway to create digital gold. This initiative, often referred to as “pooled gold interest,” would enable banks and investors to buy and sell fractional ownership of physical gold, a significant move toward greater accessibility and liquidity. This push for modernization comes as past efforts to create gold-backed stablecoins have failed to gain widespread adoption. That said, new innovations in digital gold ownership are a response to the persistent demand for the asset.

Chrome Stays: A judge ruled against potentially breaking up Google, arguing that the rise of generative AI has weakened the case regarding the company’s monopoly power. Prior to the ruling, regulators had considered forcing a sale of Google’s Chrome browser business due to concerns over its market dominance. The decision highlights how emerging technologies like AI are rapidly reshaping competitive landscapes, challenging traditional antitrust assumptions, and potentially protecting incumbent tech giants from government intervention.

European Credit Markets: Moody’s predicts that the European Union’s private credit markets are on track to rival those of the US. In a new report, the agency states that the EU’s push for strategic autonomy in a fragmenting global economy is a key growth driver. This potential, however, is currently constrained by persistent regulatory and legal challenges. The analysis adds to a growing body of evidence that the rising investor appetite for European assets is not solely a function of a weakening US dollar.

EU-Mercosur: European Union officials are seeking to reassure farmers that they will not be adversely affected by a new trade deal with South American partners. The agreement, announced earlier today, is designed to help the EU reduce its reliance on the United States as an export destination and broaden its overall trade reach. Estimates indicate that the deal could absorb approximately one-third of the export volume the EU is forecast to lose following its separate trade agreement with the US.

Retailers Report: Recent earnings reports from Macy’s and Dollar Tree provide a nuanced view of the American consumer. Both companies posted strong earnings but offered a cautious, mixed outlook on future consumer spending. Macy’s cited headwinds from new tariffs and expressed wariness about the fickle nature of shoppers, though it expressed confidence in its ability to manage these risks. Similarly, Dollar Tree conveyed a mixed perspective on the upcoming quarters due to tariff related costs. The strong consumer is key for the ongoing market rally.

View PDF

Daily Comment (September 2, 2025)

by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash

[Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF

Our Comment today opens with some notes on the big Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Tianjin, China. We next review several other international and US developments with the potential to affect the financial markets today, including a sharp sell-off in British government bonds and the pound today and a few words on the Friday decision by a US appeals court to invalidate most of the administration’s new “reciprocal” tariffs.

China-Shanghai Cooperation Organization: General Secretary Xi welcomed the leaders of about 20 nations for an SCO summit in China on Sunday, including Russian President Putin, Iranian President Pezeshkian, and Indian Prime Minister Modi. To many analysts, Modi’s decision to attend the Beijing-led political and security grouping is a worrying sign that India has now at least partially shifted its allegiance to China and away from the US.

  • If New Delhi continues to realign with Beijing, it would potentially dash years of hopes in the West that India would be a bulwark against China’s growing geopolitical and economic power.
  • As a reminder, membership in the SCO is one of the factors we use to assign countries into the world’s new geopolitical blocs. It’s also one reason why our methodology currently assigns India to the “Leaning China” bloc. Some observers have questioned that assignment, but it’s consistent with New Delhi’s quick pivot toward Beijing this spring.

China-Russia: Also at the SCO summit, the Kremlin said China and Russia have now finally agreed to jointly build the Power of Siberia 2 natural gas pipeline, an enormous new conduit between the countries. Once completed in the 2030s, the new pipeline would allow Russia to shift its gas exports away from Europe in favor of markets in China, which, in turn, would allow China to cut its imports of expensive LNG. However, it appears that commercial terms are still being negotiated, including pricing issues that have long been a stumbling block for Beijing.

China: The official purchasing managers’ index for manufacturing rose to a seasonally adjusted 49.4 in August, while the private-sector Caixin PMI for manufacturing jumped to 50.5. For a true gauge of what’s happening in the Chinese factory sector, analysts sometimes average the two, and using that method, the reading rose from 49.4 to 49.9. That still leaves the reading below the 50 level that indicates growth, but it does suggest that Chinese manufacturing is now basically just stagnant rather than falling, at least in part because of the government’s stimulus measures.

 

Japan: Despite Tokyo’s recent decision to double its defense spending and rearm to meet the growing geopolitical threat from China, new reports say it only managed to recruit half the 20,000 fresh troops it planned to hire in 2023. As with many nations in the US geopolitical bloc, military recruiting in Japan is facing challenges such as the country’s poor population growth, tight labor market, low military pay, and the perception of military service as dangerous.

  • Those factors will likely make it hard for Japan to respond to US pressure for a more robust military effort.
  • In turn, that could mean Japan will be more vulnerable to US moves to punish it for not rearming more aggressively.

Indonesia: The country’s wave of protests against corruption and lawmaker perks intensified over the weekend with looting, arson and deadly violence in multiple cities. The unrest became so bad that President Subianto was forced into an embarrassing cancelation of his trip to the SCO summit in China. He also was forced to strike a deal with several political parties to cut housing allowances and suspend overseas work trips for members of parliament. Those moves have helped calm the situation, but economically disruptive protests could still reignite.

Eurozone: In a report yesterday, the region’s July unemployment rate fell to a seasonally adjusted 6.2%, down from 6.3% in June and marking a new record low. The decline was especially impressive given the eurozone’s recent spate of weak economic growth. The drop in joblessness is expected to discourage the European Central Bank from a further interest-rate cut at its next policy meeting next week.

United Kingdom: In a potential sign of capital flight sparked by slow economic growth and rising public debt, 30-year gilt yields today spiked to 5.72%, reaching their highest level since 1998. Meanwhile, the pound depreciated 1.4% against the dollar, ending at $1.3352. The jump in government borrowing costs will likely put even more pressure on Prime Minister Starmer’s Labour Party government to come up with difficult tax hikes and/or spending cuts, which could further weigh on the economy and UK assets.

Russia-Ukraine War: In a previously unreported development that heralds a new era in warfare, Ukraine has been using drone swarm technology in its defense against Russia’s invasion over the last year. The technology involves loading multiple drones with artificial intelligence so they can operate, communicate, coordinate among themselves, and attack Russian positions or carry out other tasks autonomously, reducing the number of Ukrainian soldiers needed for the task. The technology is now expected to become a big part of the global defense industry.

United States-China: In the latest example of a high-profile scientist leaving the US to return to China, epidemiologist and human microbiome scientist Wang Leyao has left her positions at the University of Massachusetts at Amherst and the National Institutes of Health to join the Shenzhen Medical Academy of Research and Translation (Smart) as a senior research fellow in its Institute of Human Immunology. As we’ve noted before, the string of top scientists returning home could help China overtake or expand its lead over the US in key industries.

US Tariff Policy: A federal appeals court late Friday ruled that the White House’s “reciprocal” and fentanyl tariffs against China, Mexico, and Canada are illegal, upholding a lower court’s decision to block them. However, the court let the tariffs remain in place until October 14 to facilitate a likely administration appeal to the Supreme Court. So far, the decision doesn’t seem to be having much impact on the global financial markets, perhaps reflecting uncertainty that the Supreme Court will invalidate the tariffs.

US “Recession”: As economists and market strategists, we’re always on the lookout for a shift in the business cycle, so we were struck by new research from data analysis group IFS claiming the US is already in recession. However, on closer inspection, it turned out that the report, titled “The Sex Recession,” focuses on survey results showing a big drop in the number of Americans having, er, intimate relations. It’s not clear if this type of recession will affect the stock market, but the researchers note that it points to a further fall in the US birth rate and population growth.

View PDF