by the Confluence Macroeconomic Team  | PDF

(This is the final BWGR of 2025; the next report will be published on January 12, 2026.)

In mid-December, we publish our geopolitical outlook for the upcoming year, as is our custom. This report is less a series of predictions as it is a list of potential new geopolitical issues that we believe will dominate the international landscape in the coming year. It should also be noted that some of these issues may be important only in 2026, while others will extend beyond. The report is not designed to be an exhaustive list. Instead, it focuses on the big-picture conditions that we believe will affect policy and markets going forward. The issues are listed in order of importance.

Issue #1: Stablecoins to Support Use of the US Dollar Abroad

Issue #2: China’s New Aircraft Carrier and Spheres of Influence

Issue #3: The US Adopts a Modern Monroe Doctrine

Issue #4: The US Makes Its Move in Central Asia

Issue #5: Deregulation in Europe

Issue #6: Data Centers Going Global

Read the full report

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