Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Geopolitics of US Dollar Stablecoins (March 9, 2026)

by Bill O’Grady  | PDF

The expansion and regulation of stablecoins have become major policy goals of the Trump administration. This form of cryptocurrency has the potential to dramatically improve the transfer of funds between economic entities and could be a new source of demand for US Treasurys. In this report, we will define what stablecoins are and then examine the evolving regulatory framework, how the emerging stablecoin market relates to monetary and geopolitical history, and the ways in which stablecoins could become a tool of geopolitical power for the US. As always, we will conclude with market ramifications.

What Are Stablecoins?

Cryptocurrencies are currency-like assets that are transferred on permissionless blockchains. This means that a public ledger exists (the blockchain) where a buyer and a seller of a particular cryptocurrency can engineer a transfer without using an existing banking system. Stablecoins are a type of cryptocurrency designed to hold a stable asset value relative to a fiat currency.[1] They differ from Bitcoin, Ethereum, or other cryptocurrencies, as these are not usually tied to any particular asset and thus their prices often fluctuate wildly. The initial use case for stablecoins was to offer holders of traditional cryptocurrencies an “off-ramp” from their cryptocurrency holdings.

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Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Geopolitical Outlook for 2026 (December 15, 2025)

by the Confluence Macroeconomic Team  | PDF

(This is the final BWGR of 2025; the next report will be published on January 12, 2026.)

In mid-December, we publish our geopolitical outlook for the upcoming year, as is our custom. This report is less a series of predictions as it is a list of potential new geopolitical issues that we believe will dominate the international landscape in the coming year. It should also be noted that some of these issues may be important only in 2026, while others will extend beyond. The report is not designed to be an exhaustive list. Instead, it focuses on the big-picture conditions that we believe will affect policy and markets going forward. The issues are listed in order of importance.

Issue #1: Stablecoins to Support Use of the US Dollar Abroad

Issue #2: China’s New Aircraft Carrier and Spheres of Influence

Issue #3: The US Adopts a Modern Monroe Doctrine

Issue #4: The US Makes Its Move in Central Asia

Issue #5: Deregulation in Europe

Issue #6: Data Centers Going Global

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