by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA  | PDF

In a Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report late last year, we argued that the 2025 trade dispute between the United States and China revealed just how dramatically Beijing has increased its comprehensive power — military, political, economic, and technological. We argued that China’s comprehensive power may now rival or even surpass that of the US, potentially ending the US’s traditional role as the global hegemon, i.e., the big, strong, dominant country that provides the world with security, order, and the reserve currency. Now that the US has launched a war against Iran — a key member of China’s geopolitical and economic bloc — the world has seen additional evidence that the US may not continue as a hegemonic power. In this report, we examine the evidence pointing to the US relinquishing its hegemonic role and what that means for investors.

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