Research & News
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Pandemic’s Impact on Inequality (July 18, 2022)
by Natalia Fields | PDF During the global coronavirus pandemic that exploded globally in 2020, perhaps the most notable economic development was the effort by governments around the world to stop the spread of infections through lockdowns, while simultaneously trying to support incomes and economic activity via loose fiscal, monetary, and regulatory policies. Importantly, the… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (July 14, 2022)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Since early June, oil prices have fallen significantly, breaking the psychologically important point of $100 per barrel. Technical support exists at $95 per barrel, so we will be watching to see if it holds. (Source: Barchart.com) Crude oil inventories rose 3.3 mb compared to… Read More »
2022 Outlook: Update #2 – The Tails Become Fatter (July 12, 2022)
by Bill O’Grady, Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Mark Keller, CFA | PDF In our 2022 Outlook: The Year of Fat Tails, we outlined a forecast with a higher likelihood of events outside the norm. To compensate for the unusual level of uncertainty, we promised to provide frequent updates to the forecast. This report is the… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The ECB Dilemma (July 11, 2022)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF When the Eurozone project began, investors assumed that the credit risk for individual countries would be shared equally among the group’s members. This notion unraveled after the collapse of Lehman Brothers set off a chain of events that triggered the European Sovereign Debt Crisis in 2010. As the… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (June 30, 2022)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF (N.B.=> due to Independence Day, the next report will be issued on July 14.) The DOE has resolved its systems issues and released weekly data for 6/17/22 and 6/24/22. We update the data below. After a sharp correction on recession worries, crude oil prices… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The Selling of Austerity (June 27, 2022)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Politics is the art of the possible… — Otto Von Bismarck Although there have been attempts to treat it as a science (hence the study of political science), the necessary art of politics is to convince people to accept policies that may be contrary to their best interest. … Read More »