Research & News
Keller Quarterly (October 2022)
Letter to Investors | PDF Summer has concluded and we’re starting to feel the chill of winter. For reasons that I’ve never fully understood, the stock market “feels a chill” this time of year also. More often than not, September produces a negative return for U.S. stocks, and this September was no exception. For some… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 18, 2022)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Our Comment today opens with an update on the Russia-Ukraine war, including details on the shooting of newly mobilized troops at a training camp in Russia and signs that Russian oligarch Yevgeny Prigozhin may be positioning himself to eventually push President Putin… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 17, 2022)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Our Comment today opens with an update on the Russia-Ukraine war, including news of further progress with Ukraine’s counteroffensive to retake the Russian-held city of Kherson in the country’s south. We next review a wide range of other international and U.S. developments… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – An Update on Bonds (October 17, 2022)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Our starting point for examining bond yields begins with our yield model. The key components are fed funds, the 15-year average of CPI (which is a proxy for inflation expectations), the five-year rolling standard deviation of CPI (a measure of inflation volatility), German Bund yields, oil prices, the… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 14, 2022)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning. Today’s Comment begins with our thoughts on yesterday’s CPI report. Next, we discuss significant policy shifts in some of the most influential countries. Finally, we discuss how Russia’s nuclear threat has encouraged other countries to become more pugnacious. The Market… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (October 14, 2022)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Crude oil prices remain in a downtrend. (Source: Barchart.com) Crude oil inventories rose 9.9 mb compared to a 1.0 mb build forecast. The SPR declined 7.7 mb, meaning the net build was 2.2 mb. In the details, U.S. crude oil production fell 0.1 mbpd… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 13, 2022)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning and happy CPI day! U.S. equity futures were moving higher in front of the report, and we will cover the CPI numbers in detail below, but in short, they were bad, leading to a sharp reversal in equity futures. Our… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 12, 2022)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning. Markets are higher this morning, with U.S. equity futures moving higher before the PPI data. The PPI data came in “hotter” than expected, taking equity futures off their earlier highs. The dollar is mixed, with the GBP modestly higher while… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 11, 2022)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF In today’s Comment, we begin with economic and finance news as the BOE had to rush support to the Gilt market after rates jumped on fears that the bank would withdraw support from the market. War news comes next, with a look… Read More »