Research & News
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – What If Russia Wins in Ukraine? (January 16, 2024)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF For the last two years, we’ve written a great deal about the evolving China-led geopolitical bloc and Beijing’s allies within it, including top partner Russia and other like-minded nations such as North Korea, Iran, Cuba, and Venezuela. We believe the geopolitical challenge to the United States and its allies… Read More »
The 2024 Outlook: Slow-Bicycle Economy (December 18, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, Thomas Wash, Bill O’Grady, and Mark Keller, CFA Summary of Expectations | PDF The Economy Economic Growth We expect the U.S. economy to continue growing into 2024, but its momentum has been slowing, and slowing momentum will put the economy at increased risk of recession. As the growth rate continues to… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (December 14, 2023)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF (N.B. The Weekly Energy Update is going on indefinite hiatus. Next year, look for a new report format.) Crude oil prices are continuing to break down despite OPEC+ efforts to restrain supply. Commercial crude oil inventories fell 4.3 mb compared to forecasts of a… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The 2024 Geopolitical Outlook (December 11, 2023)
by Bill O’Grady & Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF (This is the final BWGR of 2023; the next report will be published on January 15, 2024.) As is our custom, in mid-December, we publish our geopolitical outlook for the upcoming year. This report is less a series of predictions as it is a list of… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (December 7, 2023)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Crude oil prices are breaking down despite OPEC+ efforts to restrain supply. (Source: Barchart.com) Commercial crude oil inventories fell 4.6 mb compared to forecasts of a 3.0 mb draw. The SPR rose 0.3 mb, which puts the net draw at 4.3 mb. In the… Read More »