Research & News
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Sykes-Picot: 100 Years Later (May 23, 2016)
by Kaisa Stucke, CFA Last week marked the 100th anniversary of the Sykes-Picot Agreement, which divided the disintegrating Ottoman Empire territories in the Middle East into British-controlled and French-controlled areas following WWI. One hundred years after the agreement, the effects of the borders established by these European powers continue to reverberate as the region remains unstable. … Read More »
Daily Comment (May 23, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The G-7 meeting ended with a reaffirmed pledge not to weaken currencies. Japanese Finance Minister Aso said that the country will not be delaying a planned sales tax hike. Additionally, BOJ Governor Kuroda indicated that the central bank is ready to use additional monetary stimulus as… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (May 20, 2016)
by Asset Allocation Committee As promised, this week we will discuss how President Trump’s policies would likely affect the financial markets. It should be noted that Mr. Trump has not published any clear policy papers, so our descriptions are based on his public comments. Next week, we will discuss the expected policies and financial market effects… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 20, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Markets were quiet overnight. The G-7 meeting, being held in Japan, is probably the most important event going on at the moment. So far, Japan has been politely discouraged from using tools to weaken the JPY. We suspect that after this meeting ends, Japan will take… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 19, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The FOMC minutes were more hawkish than the market expected. In fact, in the minutes, the members expressed concern that the financial markets are underestimating the likelihood of a rate move. The committee felt that foreign risks have lessened and several suggested that the balance of… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 18, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] There are two items of interest this morning, which are linked. First, worries about the Fed moving rates higher are starting to rise. Fed funds futures are now projecting a 12% chance of a hike in June. Although this level remains low, it is up from… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 17, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] After a strong rally yesterday, we are seeing some consolidation this morning. There is lots of news this week, with a full lineup of U.S. economic data today (see below), Fed minutes tomorrow and a G-7 meeting over the weekend. The latter will be quite interesting. … Read More »