Research & News
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The 2023 Mid-Year Geopolitical Outlook: The Polycrisis (July 10, 2023)
Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF As is our custom, we update our geopolitical outlook for the remainder of the year as the first half comes to a close. This report is less a series of predictions as it is a list of potential geopolitical issues that we believe will dominate… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 10, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Our Comment today opens with multiple China-related reports highlighting the country’s growing frictions with the West and its sharply slowing economy. We next review a wide range of other international and U.S. developments with the potential to affect the financial markets today,… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 7, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Today’s Comment begins with the latest development from Treasury Secretary Yellen’s trip to Beijing. Next, we discuss the heightened risk of unrest in Russia. Lastly, we examine why tech companies are looking to take greater control of access to consumer data. Back… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (July 6, 2023)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Despite OPEC+ promises to cut production, oil remains in a $67 to $74 per barrel trading range. Commercial crude oil inventories fell 1.5 mb, which was on forecast. The SPR fell 1.5 mb, putting the total draw at 3.0 mb. In the details, U.S.… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 6, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning! Today’s Comment begins with a discussion about friction between policymakers in the U.S. and Europe over the pace and direction of interest rate changes. We will then discuss why households are not as confident in the economy as the data… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 5, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Our Comment today opens with news of more trade frictions between China and the West. We next review a wide range of other international and U.S. developments with the potential to affect the financial markets today, including reports of a new breakthrough… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 3, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Our Comment today opens with energy news, including further oil output cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia, as well as a spate of negative prices for wholesale electricity in Europe. We next review a wide range of other international and U.S. developments… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The Green Shoots of Re-Industrialization (July 3, 2023)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF In a little-noticed report last month, total construction spending in April was up a modest 6.1% from one year earlier, but private nonresidential construction spending was up a whopping 30.2%. That marked the fourth straight month in which private, nonresidential construction, a proxy for commercial construction, was up… Read More »