Research & News
Weekly Energy Update (July 20, 2023)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF On Monday, oil prices spiked on reports that the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) was going to extend its voluntary production cuts until year’s end. The report was incorrect but does show the power that the news has on the oil markets. (Source: Barchart.com)… Read More »
Keller Quarterly (July 2023)
Letter to Investors | PDF At least once a decade, the stock market vibrates with excitement over a new technology and, in this revelry, the stocks of any company close to that technology separate themselves from the rest of the market as a rocket separates itself from the ground. That remarkable upward surge in stock… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 19, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Our Comment today opens with good news on consumer price inflation in the United Kingdom, which has helped push down bond yields so far this morning. We next review a wide range of other international and U.S. developments with the potential to… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 18, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Our Comment today opens with news that the U.S. is sending more military forces to the Middle East to counter Iranian mischief there. We next review a wide range of other international and U.S. developments with the potential to affect the financial… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 17, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Our Comment today opens with several items related to China. As usual, the trend remains negative. We next review a wide range of other international and U.S. developments with the potential to affect the financial markets today, including further efforts by the… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – Are Higher Interest Rates Bearish for Risk Assets? (July 17, 2023)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Orthodox finance and economics rests on the idea that higher interest rates reduce economic activity and lower the attractiveness of risk assets. We have no real quarrel with the part about reducing economic activity as higher borrowing costs will tend to slow investment and consumer durable spending. The… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 14, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Today’s Comment begins with a discussion about a possible shift in Fed policy. Next, we give an update on the latest stories surrounding artificial intelligence. Lastly, we end the report detailing the possible ramifications of the breach in the price cap on… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 13, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Today’s Comment begins with our thoughts about the better-than-expected inflation report. Next, we explain how tight policy abroad may impact domestic economies. Lastly, the report discusses how tensions within NATO may not necessarily doom the military alliance. Inflation Cools: Investors are hopeful… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (July 13, 2023)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Falling U.S. inflation is raising hopes that the Fed’s tightening cycle is coming to an end. That has lifted oil prices, triggering a breakout above the recent trading range. (Source: Barchart.com) Commercial crude oil inventories rose 5.9 mb, well above the 0.1 mb draw… Read More »