Research & News
Daily Comment (August 8, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Our Comment today opens with new evidence of military aggressiveness from the China/Russia bloc, which we continue to believe will produce risks for investors exposed to China or to companies dependent on China. We next review a wide range of other international… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Economics of National Defense in Great Power Competition (August 7, 2023)
Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Tensions between the United States and China continue to worsen, with the two nations hurtling toward each other in a geopolitical game of chicken that, in a worst case scenario, could potentially end up in war. In the distance, a few possible off-ramps still hold promise, but the two powers… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 7, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Our Comment today opens with several items related to China and its relations with the rest of the world. We next review a wide range of other international and U.S. developments with the potential to affect the financial markets today, including news… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 4, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning! Today’s Comment will discuss three topics: recent optimism about the global economy, the Bank of Japan’s recent intervention in bond markets, and the increase in global defense spending due to the rift between the U.S. and China. Turning Tide: While… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 3, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning! Today’s Comment will explore three key topics: the U.S. deficit, central bank policy, and the U.K.’s post-Brexit economy. First, we will discuss the U.S. deficit and what it may mean for bond yields. Second, we will explain why other central… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (August 3, 2023)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Oil prices challenged the upper end of the trading range but so far have failed to breakout above that level. (Source: Barchart.com) Commercial crude oil inventories fell a massive 17.0 mb, well above the 2.3 mb draw forecast. The SPR was unchanged. In the… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 2, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Our Comment today opens with a discussion of Fitch’s decision to cut the U.S. government’s bond rating to one notch below its highest score. We next review a wide range of other international and U.S. developments with the potential to affect the… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 1, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Our Comment today opens with news that the coup leaders who seized power in Niger have announced an embargo on sending uranium and gold to France—a move that’s entirely consistent with the type of behavior we’ve been warning about from the China/Russia… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 31, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Our Comment today opens with several reports touching on China’s economy and foreign relations. We next review a wide range of other international and U.S. developments with the potential to affect the financial markets today, including a modest acceleration in eurozone economic… Read More »