Research & News
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – Fiscal Tightening Looms (September 11, 2023)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF To understand the state of the U.S. economy and gauge near-term financial prospects, investors over the last couple of years have focused on issues like the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, consumer price inflation, labor market indicators, and retail sales. They seemed to pay much less attention to fiscal… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 8, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning! Today’s Comment will be broken down into three sections: 1) Why more central banks are signaling an end to their tightening cycle; 2) How the no-shows by the U.S. and China reflect the waning relevance of multilateral organizations; and 3)… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (September 8, 2023)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Oil prices have clearly broken out of their trading range, with Brent crude oil moving above $90 per barrel. Prices are being supported by the Russian and Saudi extension of production restraint. (Source: Barchart.com) Commercial crude oil inventories fell 6.3 mb, much lower than… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 7, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning! Today’s Comment will be broken down into three sections: 1) How the rising U.S. dollar is impacting other countries; 2) How political fracturing in Spain and Brazil is representative of a global trend; and 3) What trade and investment flow… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 6, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning. Risk markets are under pressure again this morning, with rising Treasury yields raising investor fears. Rising interest rates are also lifting the dollar. The JPY is challenging recent lows, and traders are watching for central bank intervention. In today’s Comment,… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 5, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Our Comment today opens with Chinese economic news. We next review a wide range of other international and U.S. developments with the potential to affect the financial markets today, including shocking new revelations about corruption in Mexico and unsettling news that the… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 1, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning! Today’s Comment will contain three themes: 1) Why Thursday’s inflation report is unlikely to change central banks’ rate decisions later this month; 2) How China’s new map complicates its effort to build a coalition of emerging economies to challenge the… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 31, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning! Today’s Comment has three main themes: 1) Why markets are rethinking expectations that the U.S. was in recovery; 2) How regulators are looking to rein in banks with new regulations; and 3) How El Niño may be a problem for… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (August 31, 2023)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Oil prices were mostly rangebound this week, holding near recent highs. We are watching Hurricane Idalia as it travels through the Gulf of Mexico. Its current track suggests it will miss the most sensitive areas of oil and gas production, but it could disrupt… Read More »