Research & News
Asset Allocation Weekly (December 20, 2019)
by Asset Allocation Committee (N.B. This is our last Asset Allocation Weekly for 2019. The next edition will be published January 10, 2020.) Did the Fed engineer a soft landing? That is the critical question for 2020. If the Fed, through its rate cuts last year,[1] has rescued the economy, it would be one of the… Read More »
2020 Outlook: Storm Watch (December 19, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady & Mark Keller | PDF Summary – The Base Case: Economy grows at 1.5%; consumption has become the primary driver of growth. Expansion continues to set new records for duration; no recession is our base case in 2020, although there are increasing risks of a downturn. Core inflation max is 2.5% next… Read More »
Quarterly Energy Comment (December 17, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady The Oil Market Since June, oil prices have held mostly within a range of $50 to $60 per barrel. After a sharp decline in prices from late May into early June, due in part to a contra-seasonal build in inventories, inventories fell and oil prices rebounded. Rising tensions with Iran added to… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The 2020 Geopolitical Outlook (December 16, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA (This is the last report for 2019; the next report will be published January 13, 2020.) As is our custom, in mid-December, we publish our geopolitical outlook for the upcoming year. This report is less a series of predictions as it is a list of potential geopolitical issues… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (December 13, 2019)
by Asset Allocation Committee The recent employment report was very strong, with payroll growth rising more than forecast and the unemployment rate declining more than expected. One uncertainty that develops when labor markets tighten is the point at which wage growth begins to lift inflation. This chart shows yearly wage growth and the unemployment rate (inverted… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Ukraine Under Zelensky (December 9, 2019)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA Because of the congressional impeachment inquiry into President Trump, people are hearing a lot about Ukraine and its new president, Volodymyr Zelensky. However, it’s important to remember that Ukraine and its new leader are significant in their own right. Russia has been keeping Ukraine under intense geopolitical pressure for the last… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (December 6, 2019)
by Asset Allocation Committee In 2017, we introduced an indicator of the basic health of the economy and added it to the many charts we monitor to gauge market conditions. The indicator is constructed using commodity prices, initial claims and consumer confidence. The thesis behind this indicator is that these three components should offer a simple… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Lebanon and its “Revolution of the Millennials” (December 2, 2019)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA Working at NATO Headquarters in Brussels in the 1990s was a diverse experience: my coworker was Belgian, my boss was British, his boss was French and our secretary was Turkish. But what felt especially exotic were my weekends in eastern Belgium, on the Dutch border, with my Turkish, Egyptian and Lebanese… Read More »