Research & News
The 2026 Outlook: Implications of the New Techo-Industrial State (December 11, 2025)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Mark Keller, CFA Summary of Expectations | PDF The Economy Economic Growth We expect these trends to be bolstered by stimulative fiscal and monetary policies, ongoing enthusiasm for the promises of AI, and less policy uncertainty. Recession Risk Importantly, we do not expect a recession in… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 11, 2025)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Our Comment opens with an analysis of the Federal Reserve’s latest rate action and the 2026 policy outlook. We then assess rising US-Venezuela tensions and their implications for US foreign policy. This is followed by other market moving events such as China’s… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 10, 2025)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Our Comment begins with an analysis of President Trump’s decision to push for new governance in the EU. Next, we provide a primer for today’s pivotal Fed rate decision. We then offer an overview of critical global developments, including Denmark’s security concerns… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 9, 2025)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Our Comment today opens with changes to Washington’s policy limiting Chinese access to advanced US computer chips and what the changes say about power dynamics in the US and between the US and China. We next review several other international and US… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 8, 2025)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Our Comment today opens with new developments regarding the global and US equity markets, as well as gold. We next review several other international and US developments that could affect the financial markets today, including a dangerous military standoff between Japan and… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – What Catch-Up Economic Reports Say About the AI Boom (December 8, 2025)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Now that the federal government’s record-breaking shutdown over budget issues has ended, agencies have been releasing batches of delayed economic reports. In some cases, officials have warned the reports may never be released, given that statisticians can’t go back in time and collect certain data. The prime examples of… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 5, 2025)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Our Comment opens with an assessment of the US effort to guarantee smooth economic relations with China. Next, we turn to the fine that the EU levied against X for violating its controversial new tech rules. We then provide an overview of… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 4, 2025)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Our Comment begins with a discussion of the setbacks challenging the White House’s AI industrialization push. Next, we turn to the increasing influence of the Treasury Department over the Federal Reserve. Our global coverage provides a deeper look into the escalating tensions… Read More »