Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The End of the Carter Doctrine: Part I (October 14, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady In our 2018 Mid-Year Geopolitical Outlook we opened the report with an analysis of America’s evolving hegemony. We noted that America’s hegemonic narrative centered on containing communism. This factor united Americans to accept the burden of the superpower role. However, embedded in that commitment to contain communism was the “freezing” of three… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Japan-South Korea Dispute: Part II (October 7, 2019)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA In Part I of this report, we reviewed the history of Japanese-Korean relations over the last several centuries, highlighting the Japanese invasions of Korea in the 1590s and 1890s, Japan’s assassination of a Korean queen in 1895, and Japan’s colonization of Korea from 1910 to 1945. We also showed how Japanese… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Japan-South Korea Dispute: Part I (September 30, 2019)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA Since early July, the financial press has been reporting on a continued trade spat between Japan and South Korea. The reports have focused on a series of tit-for-tat trade restrictions the countries have imposed on each other, which are ostensibly tied to South Korean anger over Japan’s behavior in the runup… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Weaponizing the Dollar: The Nuclear Option, Part II (September 23, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady In Part I of this report, we reviewed the U.S. current account problem and examined how the persistent deficit affects the economy. We also discussed how the U.S. current account deficit is tied to American hegemony and ways the deficit could be addressed. This week, using the background established in Part I,… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Weaponizing the Dollar: The Nuclear Option, Part I (September 16, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady Last month, we wrote a two-part report on weaponizing the dollar.[1] The continued strength of the dollar has become newsworthy recently, prompting us to provide an update to those earlier reports and include an analysis of groundbreaking new legislation that was introduced in the Senate. In Part I of this report, we… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – A Kashmir Sweater (September 9, 2019)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA Since coming to power in 2014, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has shown a penchant for using surprise to launch new policies. In 2016, for example, his government announced a sudden replacement of large-denomination bank notes to fight crime and curtail the shadow economy. Modi’s latest shocker came early last month,… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Meet Boris Johnson (August 26, 2019)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA (Due to the Labor Day holiday, our next report will be published on September 9.) The great forest fires that consumed swaths of the West in recent years have finally revealed the danger from a century of excessive fire suppression. Humanity’s natural drive to control the environment has left forests overgrown… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Weaponizing the Dollar: Part II (August 19, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady Weaponizing the Dollar: Part I In Part I, we began our analysis with a discussion of Mundell’s Impossible Trinity. We also covered the gold standard model and Bretton Woods model. This week, we will examine the Treasury/dollar standard and introduce what could be called Bretton Woods II. Finally, we will conclude with… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Weaponizing the Dollar: Part I (August 12, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady Weaponizing the Dollar: Part I In July 1944, 44 allied nations gathered at the Mount Washington Hotel in Bretton Woods, NH to develop the structure for the economic and financial systems for the postwar world. The Bretton Woods agreement established a system of fixed exchange rates. Exchange rates were pegged to the… Read More »