by Bill O’Grady & Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF
(This is the last report of 2020; the next report will be published on January 11, 2021.)
As is our custom, in mid-December, we publish our geopolitical outlook for the upcoming year. This report is less a series of predictions as it is a list of potential geopolitical issues that we believe will dominate the international landscape for 2021. It is not designed to be exhaustive; instead, it focuses on the “big picture” conditions that we believe will affect policy and markets going forward. They are listed in order of importance.
Issue #1: The Establishment Strikes Back
Issue #2: Anti-China Alliance Building
Issue #3: The Middle East
Issue #4: North Korea
Issue #5: Inflation Up, Real Yields Down
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These reports were prepared by Confluence Investment Management LLC and reflect the current opinion of the authors. Opinions expressed are current as of the date shown and are based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward-looking statements expressed are subject to change. This is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Information provided in this report is for educational and illustrative purposes only and should not be construed as individualized investment advice or a recommendation. Investments or strategies discussed may not be suitable for all investors. Investors must make their own decisions based on their specific investment objectives and financial circumstances.