Daily Comment

Daily Comment (July 19, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Financial and commodity markets are very quiet this morning as the summer doldrums are starting to become evident.  However, three news items did catch our attention and are worthy of comment: GOP Platform calls for a return to Glass-Steagall: The Glass-Steagall Act separated commercial from investment… Read More »

Daily Comment (July 18, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The big weekend news was the failed coup in Turkey.  Late Friday, news began to emerge of unusual troop movements within the country.  By evening, it was clear that a full-blown coup attempt was underway.  President Erdogan issued a statement to his followers via FaceTime to… Read More »

Daily Comment (July 15, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] There were two major news items overnight, the Nice terrorist attack and China’s GDP.  News reports indicate that there were 84 deaths from a terrorist attack in Nice, France.  The attacker, identified as Mohamed Lahouaiej Bouhlel, a French passport holder of Tunisian descent, used a 19… Read More »

Daily Comment (July 14, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Equities are higher this morning on expectations of continued support from policy stimulus.  Although the BOE disappointed (see below), the BOJ looks like it is moving steadily toward direct BOJ financing of fiscal spending, otherwise known as helicopter money.  Japan remains mired in near-deflationary conditions and… Read More »

Daily Comment (July 13, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It was another quiet overnight session.  Equities continue to be well bid; as noted above, so far, earnings are coming in better than expected.  Of course, as our AAW discusses this week, the data we track daily comes from Thomson-Reuters, meaning that they are probably overstating… Read More »

Daily Comment (July 12, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The most important news for investors is that, despite everything, equity markets around the world are gaining strength.  This improvement is coming despite slowing earnings growth, sluggish economic activity, Brexit, an adverse ruling against China on its maritime claims, U.S. elections, etc.  Why the strength?  Most… Read More »

Daily Comment (July 11, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] There is a lot of political news this morning, all of it from abroad. Leadsom quits: The race to replace PM Cameron ended this morning when Energy Minister Andrea Leadsom quit the race, leaving Home Secretary Theresa May as the only remaining candidate.  Almost immediately, the… Read More »

Daily Comment (July 8, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] We discuss the labor market data in more detail below but the initial response is that the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) seems to have lost its way.  We saw a massive jump in June non-farm payrolls by 287k with a net revision of -6k, reversing… Read More »

Daily Comment (July 7, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Financial markets are attempting to stabilize in front of tomorrow’s employment data.  We did get the ADP data (see below), which came in above forecast and rather strong compared to last month.  Current expectations call for a 180k rise in payrolls and a 4.8% unemployment rate… Read More »

Daily Comment (July 6, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s more of the same this morning.  The GBP has declined under $1.30, worries are present about Italian banks becoming a systemic risk and we continue to see the relentless decline in sovereign yields.  China is continuing its “stealth” depreciation.  Here are a few charts of… Read More »

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