Daily Comment

Daily Comment (February 1, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s employment day!  We cover the data in detail below but here is a quick rundown.  The payroll data came in much stronger than expected, but there was a large downward revision to December.  The unemployment rate ticked higher, but that was likely due to the… Read More »

Daily Comment (January 31, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Yesterday brought a strong rally in U.S. equities.  Here is what we are watching this morning: Fed meeting: The Fed meeting delivered more than what was expected.[1]  First, the FOMC removed language from previous statements suggesting the path for the policy rate was on a gradual… Read More »

Daily Comment (January 30, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Fed Day!  U.S. equity futures are higher this morning in light of some solid earnings reports.  Here is what we are watching this morning: Fed meeting: The FOMC ends its two-day meeting today.  Although we won’t get new dots or forecasts, Chair Powell begins his… Read More »

Daily Comment (January 29, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] U.S. equity futures are modestly higher this morning after a drop yesterday.  It’s the last week of the Year of the Dog—my two are sad about its end.  The Year of the Pig starts next week.  Here is what we are watching this morning: Trade talks… Read More »

Daily Comment (January 28, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Welcome back; we are sure the Pro Bowl captured your attention over the weekend.  There is a lot going on this week, including unemployment data, Chinese/U.S. trade meetings and Brexit votes in Parliament.  The U.S. government has reopened, at least temporarily, and it’s going to get… Read More »

Daily Comment (January 25, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Equities are rallying around the world.  Here is what we are watching this morning: Venezuela: As we noted yesterday, China and Russia[1] would be on the hook for billions of bad debt that a new government could simply default on, arguing the debt was incurred by… Read More »

Daily Comment (January 24, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Equities are rising modestly this morning.  Here is what we are watching: Venezuela heats up: Venezuela has been a problem for a while.  Its economy and government have essentially stopped functioning.  Hyperinflation has set in.  There is a massive exodus of Venezuelans[1] to other parts of… Read More »

Daily Comment (January 23, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] After a hard drop yesterday, equities are rising modestly this morning.  Here is what we are watching: The importance of trade: Equity market action on Friday and Tuesday made it abundantly clear how focused financial markets are on trade. This is a five-day chart of the… Read More »

Daily Comment (January 22, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Welcome back from the long weekend.  Equities are in the red this morning mostly on worries about global growth.  Here is what we are watching today: The IMF, global growth and Davos: The IMF has reduced its world growth forecast to 3.5% for this year (down… Read More »

Daily Comment (January 18, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Friday!  Equities are moving higher this morning.  Here is what we are watching today: About those tariffs: Yesterday, equity prices were jolted higher on reports that the Trump administration was considering rolling back tariffs on China. This chart shows March S&P futures; note the jump… Read More »

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