Daily Comment

Daily Comment (August 25, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] All eyes are focusing on the Grand Tetons as the KC FRB’s annual meetings start in Jackson Hole tomorrow.  Although the market’s focus is all about the timing of the next rate hike (fed funds futures indicate over 50% probability for the December meeting, 30% for… Read More »

Daily Comment (August 24, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Late summer doldrums are upon us.  Financial markets are quiet; the VIX is falling as investor fears dissipate.  About the only concern out there is Fed policy.  As we noted yesterday, Chair Yellen speaks on Friday.  She is not taking questions and her topic is on… Read More »

Daily Comment (August 23, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It was another quiet overnight session, typical of late summer.  The flash PMI data came in fairly strong (details below), easing some concerns about the economy post-Brexit.  However, until Britain actually leaves the EU, it is almost impossible to determine what the actual impact will be,… Read More »

Daily Comment (August 22, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] There are two items of note this morning.  First, talk coming from the FOMC is that of two minds.  On the one hand, several members are taking great pains to suggest that all meetings are “live.”  Today’s weakness in equities and dollar strength is being attributed… Read More »

Daily Comment (August 19, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] We have been monitoring the situation in Russia since early August.  There have been a number of reports indicating a troop buildup on the Ukrainian border.  There have been unsubstantiated accounts of an attack in Crimea; Russia claims Ukrainian special operations forces attempted an attack, while… Read More »

Daily Comment (August 18, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The FOMC minutes offered a short period of market volatility; the initial reaction was hawkish but that faded rather quickly.  After reading the full report, it appears that the majority of members believe that: International events will continue to act as a drag on inflation and… Read More »

Daily Comment (August 17, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It was another quiet night for news, typical of summer.  The most interesting information came from NY FRB President Dudley and Atlanta FRB President Lockhart, who both suggested that the September Fed meeting (9/20-21) is “live” and the markets are underestimating the odds of a rate… Read More »

Daily Comment (August 16, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Risk markets are mixed today in the midst of relatively thin global trading volumes.  The dollar continued to slide lower amidst lower expectations for a Fed hike.  The chart below shows the year-to-date move in the dollar, which has given back the gains it made due… Read More »

Daily Comment (August 15, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Equities are moving higher alongside oil as the outlook for a Fed rate hike has become more dovish.  The market-implied likelihood of a September hike fell to 18.0% this morning.  However, despite very short-term expectations falling, the probability of a hike has risen for next year. … Read More »

1 107 108 109 110 111 122