Current Perspectives

2018 Outlook (November 30, 2017)

by Bill O’Grady & Mark Keller | PDF Summary: Our baseline forecast for 2018 calls for no recession and real GDP growth of 2.25%, with faster growth in H1. Inflation should remain low, with the PCE staying under 2.0%.  Labor markets will remain tight and wage growth will be constrained due to low inflation expectations.… Read More »

2017 Outlook (December 21, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady & Mark Keller | PDF Key Points: The economy will avoid a recession in 2017. GDP growth is expected to average 2.8% with core PCE inflation approaching the Federal Reserve’s target of 2.0%. Fixed income markets will be challenging: We expect three rate hikes of 25 bps each by the FOMC; Due… Read More »

2016: An Update (February 24, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady & Mark Keller | PDF Summary: This report is an addendum to our original 2016 forecast.  In our original 2016 Outlook, we forecasted a year-end S&P 500 of 2214.39, based on earnings of $121.67 and a P/E of 18.2x.  As we will document below, we have revised our forecast to 2033.35, with… Read More »

2016 Outlook (November 30, 2015)

by Bill O’Grady & Mark Keller | PDF In this report, we will offer our outlook for the upcoming year.  Twenty-sixteen could be an interesting year—presidential elections will be held, the Federal Reserve could tighten monetary policy and the geopolitical landscape will likely remain complicated.  We will begin the report with our base case for… Read More »

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