by Bill O’Grady & Mark Keller
We have been updating our 2020 Outlook to keep you informed of our thoughts as conditions evolve. We have refreshed some of the charts from our update last week and added new comments, included below in bold.
Update #2: March 27, 2020 | Update #1: March 16, 2020
Summary—High Probability of Recession:
- The economy is facing three simultaneous problems:
- A public health crisis—COVID-19 and the economic impact of containing it;
- An oil price war and a regional economic slump;
- Rapidly rising financial stress caused by (a) and (b) along with underlying unresolved issues.
- Although we are weeks away from data confirming that we are in a recession, the qualitative evidence leads us to say that a recession is a near certainty.
- We are now working from the standpoint that a recession is underway.
- The content of this report:
- An overview of how recessions look compared to expansions;
- A discussion of the three threats the expansion faces;
- The market impact of these three threats.