Asset Allocation Reports
Asset Allocation Weekly (January 25, 2019)
by Asset Allocation Committee One of the important unknown factors for 2019 is whether slowing global growth will have a negative impact on the U.S. economy. Or, put another way, can the world lead the U.S. into recession? For the most part, history suggests the answer is no—the U.S. can bring down the world but the… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (January 18, 2019)
by Asset Allocation Committee Equity markets struggled in 2018; although new highs were achieved twice during the year, volatility was elevated compared to 2017. This is a chart of the CBOE VIX index, a measure of implied volatility from the equity options market. An elevated VIX means implied volatility is high, which implies a wider dispersion… Read More »
Asset Allocation Quarterly (First Quarter 2019)
Our expectations are that the U.S. economy will continue to grow, albeit at a more modest pace of 2.7% While we anticipate the current economic expansion will become the longest on record this March, the risk of a downturn rises toward the end of our three-year forecast period We expect the Fed to suspend its… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (January 11, 2019)
by Asset Allocation Committee Does the Federal Reserve adjust policy for asset prices? This is perhaps one of the most controversial topics in U.S. monetary policy. Alan Greenspan faced this issue in the early 1990s. Both Volcker and Greenspan wanted to focus monetary policy on containing inflation. But, Larry Lindsey, a Fed governor at the time,… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (January 4, 2019)
by Asset Allocation Committee Quantitative easing (QE) was an element of unconventional monetary policy that emerged from the Great Financial Crisis. When the Federal Reserve lowered the fed funds target to zero (known as the “zero interest rate policy,” or ZIRP), policymakers decided that taking the policy rate below zero would not further stimulate the economy. … Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (December 21, 2018)
by Asset Allocation Committee (N.B. This is the last Asset Allocation Weekly for 2018. Have a Merry Christmas and Happy New Year. The next report will be published January 4, 2019.) The U.S. economy is performing in line with the rest of the world. This chart shows the yearly change in U.S. and world ex-U.S. GDP. … Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (December 14, 2018)
by Asset Allocation Committee Equity markets have come under pressure this autumn. The weakness has gained momentum in recent weeks. This chart shows the yearly change in the S&P 500 Index on a monthly average basis. We have added recession shading; in general, recessions tend to trigger bear market declines of 20% or more. In fact,… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (December 7, 2018)
by Asset Allocation Committee The election of Donald Trump has been characterized as part of a populist uprising. In the president’s inaugural address, he talked about the “forgotten” that would have a voice in his administration. At the same time, we work under John Mitchell’s dictum of “watch what we do, not what we say.”[1] In… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (November 30, 2018)
by Asset Allocation Committee As the FOMC raises rates, there are increasing concerns about the credit markets. After a long period of low rates, credit spreads are starting to widen, raising fears of financial stress. In this report, we will look at these concerns. First, here is what we are seeing with credit spreads: This chart… Read More »