Asset Allocation Reports
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The Impact of New Equity Supply (August 31, 2026)
by Bill O’Grady | PDF In November 1982, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) changed its position on stock buybacks. Prior to this change, the SEC held that buybacks were potentially market manipulation. They weren’t directly banned, but companies buying back their stock ran the risk of being sanctioned for manipulation. In 1982, the SEC… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – China’s Threat to the AI Investment Boom (August 17, 2026)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez | PDF The artificial intelligence frenzy has arguably become the most important driver of US economic growth and financial market returns. Large technology firms ranging from established giants like Meta to upstart powerhouses such as OpenAI are spending billions of dollars to develop the most powerful large language models. To accommodate the… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The PCE Makeover (August 3, 2026)
by Thomas Wash | PDF The Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of price inflation is set for a methodological update, as the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is expected to implement revisions to its price index for Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) as early as September. Early estimates suggest the changes will modestly lower measured PCE inflation,… Read More »
Asset Allocation Quarterly (Third Quarter 2026)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF We expect no recession over our three-year forecast period, with near-trend GDP growth. Economic growth continues to be driven by business investment. Inflation will likely remain above the Fed’s long-term target but without further acceleration. We expect a cautious Federal Reserve, with inflation limiting the pace and magnitude… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – In Warsh, We Trust? (July 20, 2026)
by Thomas Wash | PDF Newly appointed Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is pushing for a clear regime shift, starting with a complete overhaul of the central bank’s communications strategy. This month, he appointed a task force led by two former central bank heads — Mervyn King of the Bank of England and Arminio Fraga… Read More »