Asset Allocation Reports
Asset Allocation Quarterly (Fourth Quarter 2026)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF We expect near-trend growth and no recession over our three-year horizon. Business investment and productivity gains should sustain the expansion. Additional Fed tightening is expected in the near term, resulting in inflation moderating over the forecast period. The Middle East conflict remains a source of growth and inflation… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The Euro vs. the Swiss Franc (October 19, 2026)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF While investors in the United States have been understandably focused on the jump in US bond yields this autumn, it’s important to remember that yields have risen in most major foreign countries. Like other observers, we see many potential reasons for the run-up in rates, including concerns about higher… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – What “Real” Interest Rates Are Telling Us (October 5, 2026)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF One of the most important concepts in economics and finance is the “real” rate of return on an investment. The real rate is calculated by subtracting the rate of consumer price inflation from the nominal interest rate, bond yield, or price gain and dividends on a stock. If the… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – Breaking the Bond Fever! (September 21, 2026)
by Thomas Wash | PDF After months of rising long-term yields, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has intervened in the bond market to help calm what he describes as a “fever.” The move reflects growing concern within the administration that fear has outweighed fundamentals in bond valuations, as investors grapple with rising energy costs tied to… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The Impact of New Equity Supply (August 31, 2026)
by Bill O’Grady | PDF In November 1982, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) changed its position on stock buybacks. Prior to this change, the SEC held that buybacks were potentially market manipulation. They weren’t directly banned, but companies buying back their stock ran the risk of being sanctioned for manipulation. In 1982, the SEC… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – China’s Threat to the AI Investment Boom (August 17, 2026)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez | PDF The artificial intelligence frenzy has arguably become the most important driver of US economic growth and financial market returns. Large technology firms ranging from established giants like Meta to upstart powerhouses such as OpenAI are spending billions of dollars to develop the most powerful large language models. To accommodate the… Read More »