Asset Allocation Reports
Asset Allocation Quarterly (Second Quarter 2026)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Recession likelihood is low over our three-year forecast period. Base case expects GDP growth near historical trend, with elevated tail risks widening the range of outcomes. Higher energy prices are likely to keep inflation elevated for longer. The Middle East conflict encourages overweights to energy, industrials, defense stocks,… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The Consensus Builder (April 27, 2026)
by Thomas Wash | PDF You never really appreciate a good thing until it’s gone. May 15 will be the final day in office for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, one of the most effective consensus builders in Fed history. Despite an extraordinary series of shocks during his tenure — from the 2019 repo market… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – Wars, Price Shocks, and Inventories (April 13, 2026)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Since the launch of the US-Israeli war against Iran on February 28, if there’s been one dramatic feature, it’s that the conflict and official statements about it have shifted dramatically almost on a daily basis. By the time this report is published, the war could be going in a… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The Strategic Petroleum Reserve: A Primer (March 30, 2026)
by Bill O’Grady | PDF On March 11, the International Energy Agency announced a coordinated draw of 400 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) System maintained by the organization’s member countries. Understanding the reasoning behind this decision requires an examination of the economics of inventory. This analysis will help the reader understand that… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – Are Long-Term Treasurys No Longer a Safe Haven? (March 16, 2026)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Historically, major geopolitical or economic crises, such as the war against Iran, have prompted investors to sell riskier assets and buy “safe-haven” investments whose values were expected to remain stable or even rise amid the disruptions. The most popular safe havens have been the US dollar, gold, and longer-term… Read More »