Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly
Confluence Investment Management offers various asset allocation products which are managed using “top down,” or macro, analysis. We publish asset allocation thoughts on a bi-weekly basis, updating the piece every other Monday.
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The Immigration Paradox (May 13, 2024)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Throughout history, immigration has been a politically charged issue, creating a rift between capital and labor. Employers have advocated for looser immigration policies to fill job vacancies, particularly for positions that don’t offer high pay. Conversely, labor unions often push for stricter policies to prevent an influx of… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The Peace Dividend, Government Debt, and Yield Curve Control (April 29, 2024)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen recently castigated the European governments that slashed their defense spending at the end of the Cold War and then remained far too complacent about the growing threat from Russia in recent years. According to Frederiksen, hiking their defense budgets as is now necessary… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The Incremental Uranium Demand for Weapons (April 15, 2024)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF In our Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly report from March 4, 2024, we began to explain more fully our recent decision to introduce uranium and uranium miners into our Asset Allocation strategies. Our key thesis was that current and planned investments in new nuclear reactors for electricity generation, especially in… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – Gold, Gold Miners, and Central Banks (April 1, 2024)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF One challenge for investors seeking to benefit from rising gold prices has been that trading and holding the yellow metal is often more expensive than trading or holding stocks or other financial assets. Buying physical gold can involve fat commissions and large costs for storage and insurance. Buying… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The Fed’s Other Policy Tool (March 18, 2024)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF While the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate focuses on achieving maximum employment and stable prices, managing long-term interest rates has also played a significant role since the enactment of the Federal Reserve Act in 1977.[1] Recent actions have raised questions about the Fed potentially anchoring the 10-year Treasury yield… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – Uranium Demand, Supply, and Investment Prospects (March 4, 2024)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF In an important adjustment to our Asset Allocation strategies last October, we introduced an exchange-traded fund focused on uranium producers into our mid-cap equity exposure. At the time, we noted in our Asset Allocation Quarterly that the move aimed to take advantage of government policies around the world… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – Who Wants US Treasurys? (February 20, 2024)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Before August 2023, the Treasury’s quarterly refunding rarely raised eyebrows. Investors readily snapped up US debt, and announcements were largely ignored by markets. However, Fitch Ratings’ surprise downgrade of the US credit rating from AAA to AA that month, just days after a $6 billion increase in the… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – U.S. Oil Production at a Record High (February 5, 2024)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF These days, because investors have so many different assets to buy in so many different financial markets, it can be easy to miss an important trend or change in trend. Indeed, that seems to be the case with crude oil, where the long stagnation in U.S. output after… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – How Does Powell Define Restrictive Monetary Policy? (January 22, 2024)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Traditionally, the term “restrictive monetary policy” has been associated with a fed funds interest rate that is high enough to slow economic activity, but recent remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Powell suggest there may be a broader interpretation. Despite casting doubts on rate cuts just two weeks prior,… Read More »