Research & News

Weekly Geopolitical Report – War Gaming: Part II (January 23, 2017)

by Bill O’Grady Two weeks ago, we began this two-part report by examining America’s geographic situation and how it is conducive to superpower status.  This condition is problematic for foreign powers because it can be almost impossible to significantly damage America’s industrial base in a conventional war with the U.S.  In addition, it would be very… Read More »

Daily Comment (January 23, 2017)

by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] It was a rather tumultuous weekend with the incoming administration sparring with the media over a number of issues.  Those factors are being hashed out in the media so we won’t focus on them.  However, what we are paying attention to is the impact… Read More »

Daily Comment (January 20, 2017)

by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Happy Inauguration Day! As President Obama exits the White House and President Trump takes control, the new administration will begin to settle in.  One of the characteristics of any new president and his team is that nearly all the members of the incoming administration… Read More »

Asset Allocation Weekly (January 20, 2017)

by Asset Allocation Committee After a short foray into emerging markets, we exited that position in our latest allocation.  Prior to the Trump victory, we had expected the dollar to weaken which would have supported emerging markets.  However, the dollar’s resurgence is a bearish factor for emerging markets, leading the Asset Allocation Committee to look elsewhere… Read More »

Daily Comment (January 19, 2017)

by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] The ECB decided to keep its interest rates low as well as maintain its quantitative easing program.  During a press conference, Mario Draghi expressed his willingness to extend the current monetary policy as growth within the European Union is still relatively slow.  He also… Read More »

Daily Comment (January 18, 2017)

by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] President-elect Trump caused a stir yesterday when he suggested that he doesn’t want a strong dollar.  Some of the commentary we saw suggested that this is nearly “unprecedented.”  That’s not really the case.  Since the dollar began floating under Nixon, presidents have, on occasion,… Read More »

Daily Comment (January 17, 2017)

by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] The big news item over the long weekend was U.K. PM May’s indication that she is leaning toward what is being called a “hard Brexit.”  In general, a “soft Brexit” would mean the U.K. leaves the EU but the terms are such that not… Read More »

Daily Comment (January 13, 2017)

by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST]   Happy Friday the 13th! Outside of the Chinese trade data (see below), there wasn’t a lot of news. The number from China came in a bit soft as exports fell 6.1% from last year in USD terms. For China, the weaker trade data… Read More »

Asset Allocation Weekly (January 13, 2017)

by Asset Allocation Committee Last week, we reviewed Sebastian Mallaby’s recent biography of Alan Greenspan.[1]  This week, we will focus on the issue of financial crises and financial stability.  As noted in last week’s review, the financial system has evolved from a disjointed and diffuse system where banks could not establish themselves across state lines to… Read More »

Daily Comment (January 12, 2017)

by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] The primary market theme this morning appears to be a broad reversal of the so-called “Trump trades” that have dominated the markets since the election.  We are seeing weaker equities globally and the dollar is weaker, while Treasuries and gold are doing better.  There… Read More »

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