Research & News
Asset Allocation Weekly (April 20, 2018)
by Asset Allocation Committee The Trump administration has made it a key policy goal to reduce the trade deficit. The reasoning is that reducing the trade deficit will boost jobs in areas that have been adversely affected by foreign competition. Although this might be true (trade is very complicated), the risk is that trade restrictions will… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 20, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It was a mostly quiet overnight session. Here is what we are watching this morning: Policy talk boosts greenback: Dovish comments from the ECB and BOE have lifted the dollar this morning. The ECB is considering delaying the path of tapering due to recent economic weakness… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 19, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Castro era coming to an end: Today, Raul Castro, brother of Fidel Castro, is expected to step down as Cuba’s president. Castro will be replaced by his vice president, Miguel Diaz-Canel Bermudez, but will still retain his role as head of the Communist Party until… Read More »
Keller Quarterly (April 2018)
Letter to Investors As you well know, the U.S. stock market has been selling off for about ten weeks now. From some of the calls I’ve been getting, one would expect that another Great Crash is upon us. There is little evidence to suggest, however, that this is anything more than a normal correction in… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 18, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Equity markets are quietly ticking higher. Earnings remain strong. Although there wasn’t much market news, there was a great deal of other news. Here is what we are watching: Pompeo to Pyongyang: Over Easter, CIA Director and SOS nominee Mike Pompeo was dispatched to North Korea… Read More »
Asset Allocation Quarterly (Second Quarter 2018)
Near-term expectations for earnings growth resulting from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 remain heightened. Continued Fed policy tightening, through measured increases in the fed funds rate and reductions in the size of the Fed’s balance sheet, is not expected to weigh on the economy over the next two years. Our outlook for… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 17, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It was mostly quiet overnight. Continued robust earnings are lifting equities this morning. Here is what we are watching: Abe to Florida: Japanese PM Abe will meet today with President Trump at Mar-a-Lago. The meetings come at a difficult time for Japan. Abe is facing domestic… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Reflections on Globalization: Part II (April 16, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady Last week, we introduced this topic by discussing the Cold War. This week, we will continue our analysis with a reflection on markets, an examination of hegemony and a discussion of the expansion of globalization and the rise of meritocracy and its discontents. What about Markets? Market economics is based on how humans… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 16, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s relief Monday! There was an attack on Syria but it was quite limited. Equities have moved higher, Treasury yields have lifted, oil prices have dipped and the dollar is lower. This is what we are watching this morning: Parsing Syria: Late Friday, the U.S., U.K.… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (April 13, 2018)
by Asset Allocation Committee One of the great unknowns in this recovery and expansion is the proper measure of economic slack. Although it’s a term that is rather easy to understand in the abstract, actually defining it is difficult. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) produces an estimate of potential GDP but it is, at best, a… Read More »