Research & News

Daily Comment (September 20, 2017)

by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Markets are very quiet in front of the FOMC meeting.  We get the results later today at 2:00 EDT, with a press conference about 30 minutes later.  Here is what we are watching: The UN speech: On the surface, the president’s speech at the UN was… Read More »

Daily Comment (September 19, 2017)

by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Markets are very quiet in front of the FOMC meeting, which begins later this morning.  President Trump offers formal remarks to the UN this morning, too.  Here is what we are watching: The Fed: As we noted yesterday, we look for the Fed to begin balance… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – North Korea: An Update (September 18, 2017)

by Bill O’Grady The Kim regime has become increasingly belligerent, launching a number of ballistic missiles and testing what appears to be a hydrogen device.  It is also claiming it has miniaturized a warhead, meaning, if true, North Korea is a nuclear power. The U.S. has indicated this development is unacceptable.  Although the Trump administration still… Read More »

Daily Comment (September 18, 2017)

by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s Fed week!  The FOMC meets this week, beginning tomorrow and ending on Wednesday.  This meeting will bring new forecasts, dot plots and a press conference.  Here is what we are watching today: The President to the UN: President Trump will address the UN today.  Although… Read More »

Asset Allocation Weekly (September 15, 2017)

by Asset Allocation Committee In our most recent asset allocation rebalancing, we added foreign allocations to our portfolios.  Over the past few years, we had generally avoided allocations to non-U.S. markets in asset allocation portfolios due to two primary concerns.  First, the dollar had been appreciating as a result of an improving U.S. economy and policy… Read More »

Daily Comment (September 15, 2017)

by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Hawkish comments from the BOE continue to lift the GBP.  Here is what we are watching today: North Korea launches (yawn): As expected, North Korea launched a missile that passed over the Japanese island of Hokkaido.  The missile appears to be an intermediate-range ballistic missile, not… Read More »

Daily Comment (September 14, 2017)

by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] With the exception of the GBP, financial markets were quiet overnight.  However, the CPI data and reports that North Korea may be preparing for a missile launch have led to increased volatility.  And, there was a lot of news to cover this morning.  Here is what… Read More »

Daily Comment (September 13, 2017)

by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Financial markets are quiet this morning but there is a good bit of news.  Here is what we are watching this morning: Census releases household income: The media is broadly reporting the Census Bureau report that real household income hit a new record at $59,039 in… Read More »

Daily Comment (September 12, 2017)

by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Yesterday’s market action was consistent with a sharp reversal in the recent risk trade.  Amidst concerns about North Korea, the debt ceiling, trends in Washington, hurricane problems, etc., we saw Treasuries and gold rally, the dollar stumble and equities tread water.  Those positions reversed yesterday with… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – Reflections on Nationalism: Part III (September 11, 2017)

by Bill O’Grady Three weeks ago, we began our series on nationalism.  In Part I, we discussed social contract theory before and after the Enlightenment.  We examined three social contract theorists, Thomas Hobbes, John Locke and Jean-Jacques Rousseau.  In Part II, we recounted Western history from the American and French Revolutions into WWII.  From there, we… Read More »

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