Research & News

Daily Comment (July 26, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The FOMC meeting begins today and concludes tomorrow.  As we noted yesterday, we expect the Fed to try to inject expectations of potential tightening.  We also expect the FOMC to fail on this goal.  The financial markets are quite sure the Fed won’t move until next… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Turkish Coup, Part I (July 25, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady On Friday, July 15, reports out of Turkey indicated that unusual troop activity was underway which suggested a coup was in progress.  In the U.S., as afternoon turned toward early evening, it was abundantly clear that elements of the Turkish security services were attempting to oust President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.  As the hours… Read More »

Daily Comment (July 25, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It was another mostly quiet night.  We did see European equities lift on better economic sentiment data (see below).  The G-20 meeting ended with a mostly banal communiqué.  There was some discussion of fiscal policy by the group.  However, the G-20 structure is so unwieldy that… Read More »

Asset Allocation Weekly (July 22, 2016)

by Asset Allocation Committee In the most recent rebalance of our Asset Allocation portfolios, we introduced positions in gold.  Although the yellow metal is classified as a commodity, we view it more as a currency, admittedly one that is not backed by liabilities.  National fiat currencies are generally created in the credit process and are backed… Read More »

Daily Comment (July 22, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The GOP convention wrapped up last night; the Democrats hold theirs next week.  Financial markets are very quiet this morning, typical of the “dog days” of summer.  There were two items of note.  First, the flash PMI data from the U.K. was quite weak, with the… Read More »

Daily Comment (July 21, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The JPY rose strongly overnight after media reports quoted BOJ Governor Kuroda as saying that helicopter money was not being considered and would never be implemented.  This comment came as a surprise as the financial markets have been steadily discounting some sort of action from the… Read More »

Keller Quarterly (July 2016)

Letter to Investors In my travels around the country this year, meeting with clients and advisors, I’ve been struck by the high level of political passion (both optimistic and pessimistic), similar to what we see both in the political arena and in the media. Inevitably, I’m asked what I think about it all. “Who do… Read More »

Daily Comment (July 20, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Market commentary is starting to suggest that the FOMC may be heading toward a rate hike later this year.  Since the Brexit event is now behind us and the U.S. economy has stabilized, if the Fed wants to return to a tightening mode, it could.  However,… Read More »

Daily Comment (July 19, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Financial and commodity markets are very quiet this morning as the summer doldrums are starting to become evident.  However, three news items did catch our attention and are worthy of comment: GOP Platform calls for a return to Glass-Steagall: The Glass-Steagall Act separated commercial from investment… Read More »

Asset Allocation Quarterly (Third Quarter 2016)

The U.S. economy is likely to remain in its low-growth trend and we don’t foresee a recession, given that the Fed has become less inclined to raise rates. Brexit should be largely transitory for Britain, but may reveal a variety of weaknesses within the European Union. The U.S. presidential elections reveal a myriad of changing… Read More »

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