Research & News

Asset Allocation Weekly (June 22, 2018)

by Asset Allocation Committee Cycle studies are common in analyzing markets.  Such studies can be quite useful in some markets that are affected by seasonal factors, such as commodities.  We all know it gets cold in the winter and rains in the spring, and measuring the timing of when market participants discount these events can offer… Read More »

Daily Comment (June 22, 2018)

by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] We made it to Friday!  Markets are rather quiet this morning as immigration has overshadowed trade concerns.  We are seeing a bit of “risk-on” today after a rather rough week.  Here is what we are watching this morning: OPEC: We have a deal. The cartel agreed… Read More »

Daily Comment (June 21, 2018)

by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Summer Solstice!  Here is what we are watching this morning: Trade and the dollar: India joined other nations by applying tariffs against the U.S.[1]  EU officials are worried that U.S. trade policy will upend its longstanding Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), which is a system of… Read More »

Daily Comment (June 20, 2018)

by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s Wednesday!  Financial markets are moving steadily higher this morning, mostly on the lack of new trade pronouncements.  Here is what we are watching today: Trade: The EU unveiled €2.8 bn of tariffs on U.S. goods[1] in retaliation to American tariffs.  About a third of the… Read More »

Daily Comment (June 19, 2018)

by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s looking like a “tough Tuesday.”  Risk-off is clearly evident—Treasuries, the yen and the dollar are higher, while gold is flat and equities, especially emerging markets, are under pressure.  Oil and commodities are lower as well.  Here’s the story: Trade: President Trump has threatened[1] an additional… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – China’s Foreign Reserves: Part III (June 18, 2018)

by Bill O’Grady This week, we will conclude our study on China’s foreign reserves.  In Part I, we discussed the evolution of foreign reserves from gold to the dollar, with a historical focus.  In Part II, we used the macroeconomic saving identity to analyze the economic relationship between China and the U.S.  This week, using this… Read More »

Daily Comment (June 18, 2018)

by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Monday!  It’s a risk-off day so far this morning.  Here is what we are following: Tariffs and trade: While there wasn’t any major news on this issue over the weekend, financial markets are discounting the potential outcome of a trade war.  Although there are legitimate… Read More »

Asset Allocation Weekly (June 15, 2018)

by Asset Allocation Committee The last topic in our series on secular trends is the dollar.  It is arguable as to whether or not exchange rates are actually an asset class.  In our asset allocation, we don’t treat it as one.  On the other hand, the behavior of the dollar affects most of the other asset… Read More »

Daily Comment (June 15, 2018)

by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s Friday, the close of a very busy week.  Today will be active, too.  Here’s what we are following: Tariffs: As expected, the Trump administration leveled tariffs on $50 bn of Chinese imports this morning.  The action will be broken into two tranches; the first set,… Read More »

Daily Comment (June 14, 2018)

by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s ECB decision day!  The World Cup also begins today in Russia.  It’s also Flag Day and President Trump’s birthday.  The financial markets are trying to figure out if the Fed was hawkish or not.  Here is what we are watching today: ECB: The European Central… Read More »

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