Research & News

Daily Comment (December 8, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] The ECB gave us a modest surprise this morning by announcing a tapering of QE.  Expectations called for an extension of the current program through September.  Now, through March 2017, the bank will purchase €80 bn of bonds; from April to December, the bank… Read More »

Daily Comment (December 7, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Today is the 75th anniversary of the bombing of Pearl Harbor, a monumental event that led to U.S. involvement in WWII and eventually acceptance of the superpower role at Bretton Woods in 1945. It was another quiet market overnight.  Perhaps the most important overnight… Read More »

Daily Comment (December 6, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] It was mostly quiet overnight with the market’s focus on the aftermath of the Italian referendum.  The most relevant concern is the Italian banking system.  The lead headline in today’s FT is “Monte dei Paschi Warned to Brace for State Bailout after Renzi Defeat.” … Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – Losing the Philippines: Part 2 (December 5, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady (Next week, we will publish our 2017 Geopolitical Outlook; it will be the last issue of 2016.) In Part 1 of this report, we discussed the geography of the Philippines and examined the nation’s history, focusing on its relations with the U.S.  In Part 2 of this report, we will discuss President Rodrigo… Read More »

Daily Comment (December 5, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Italians rejected former PM Renzi’s plans for government restructuring.  This outcome was actually expected by pollsters, although the level of the rejection, at 60%, was at the highest end of expectations.  As he promised, Renzi resigned.  The president of Italy will now give time… Read More »

Asset Allocation Weekly (December 2, 2016)

by Asset Allocation Committee Last week, we discussed the likely implications of President-elect Trump’s policies on the debt markets.  This week, we will look at the impact on the dollar.  Since the election, the dollar has generally moved higher. Using the Bloomberg dollar index, a broad-based currency measure, the dollar rose nearly 5% after the election. … Read More »

Daily Comment (December 2, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Happy employment data day!  We cover the report in more detail below but, in a nutshell, the big surprise was a drop in the unemployment rate to 4.6%, the lowest since August 2007.  The unemployment rate fell due to a 266k drop in the… Read More »

Daily Comment (December 1, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] The reason for yesterday’s price strength is based on hopes that OPEC will cut output.  Here are some of the details from the agreement: We have compared the quota arrangements to Bloomberg’s October estimate, the OPEC “reference” of November production and what the quota… Read More »

Daily Comment (November 30, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] The big overnight news came from the OPEC meeting, where the latest is that the cartel has agreed to reduce production by a reported 1.2 mbpd.  There are also reports that OPEC expects non-OPEC producers to cut output by an additional 0.6 mbpd.  We… Read More »

Daily Comment (November 29, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] On the eve of the OPEC meeting, the cartel is struggling to come to an agreement, with Iraq and Iran still insisting on a production freeze above their current levels of output.  Russia has decided not to send a delegate.  If a deal of… Read More »

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