Research & News

Daily Comment (August 24, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Late summer doldrums are upon us.  Financial markets are quiet; the VIX is falling as investor fears dissipate.  About the only concern out there is Fed policy.  As we noted yesterday, Chair Yellen speaks on Friday.  She is not taking questions and her topic is on… Read More »

Daily Comment (August 23, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It was another quiet overnight session, typical of late summer.  The flash PMI data came in fairly strong (details below), easing some concerns about the economy post-Brexit.  However, until Britain actually leaves the EU, it is almost impossible to determine what the actual impact will be,… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – Thinking about Thinking: Part II (August 22, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady Last week, we examined the three types of statements deemed true.  This week we will discuss the appropriate assignment of these statements and the dangers in their inappropriate use.  We will conclude with how investors can use this analysis.  As an aside, these last two WGRs have examined a broad topic outside the… Read More »

Daily Comment (August 22, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] There are two items of note this morning.  First, talk coming from the FOMC is that of two minds.  On the one hand, several members are taking great pains to suggest that all meetings are “live.”  Today’s weakness in equities and dollar strength is being attributed… Read More »

Daily Comment (August 19, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] We have been monitoring the situation in Russia since early August.  There have been a number of reports indicating a troop buildup on the Ukrainian border.  There have been unsubstantiated accounts of an attack in Crimea; Russia claims Ukrainian special operations forces attempted an attack, while… Read More »

Asset Allocation Weekly (August 19, 2016)

by Asset Allocation Committee U.S. equity markets are showing impressive strength. This chart shows the S&P 500 Index along with the 200-day moving average.  The white horizontal line shows recent highs; note that the S&P 500 has recently moved above these highs.  Technically, this is a “breakout” and suggests the market will likely move higher. Still,… Read More »

Daily Comment (August 18, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The FOMC minutes offered a short period of market volatility; the initial reaction was hawkish but that faded rather quickly.  After reading the full report, it appears that the majority of members believe that: International events will continue to act as a drag on inflation and… Read More »

Daily Comment (August 17, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It was another quiet night for news, typical of summer.  The most interesting information came from NY FRB President Dudley and Atlanta FRB President Lockhart, who both suggested that the September Fed meeting (9/20-21) is “live” and the markets are underestimating the odds of a rate… Read More »

Daily Comment (August 16, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Risk markets are mixed today in the midst of relatively thin global trading volumes.  The dollar continued to slide lower amidst lower expectations for a Fed hike.  The chart below shows the year-to-date move in the dollar, which has given back the gains it made due… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – Thinking about Thinking: Part I (August 15, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady We are in the “dog days” of summer.  The world is in turmoil.  The U.S. presidential elections offer us a stark choice between a traditional establishment candidate and a populist alternative.  Populism is on the rise in Europe, exhibited by the Brexit vote.  Lone wolf terrorist attacks seem to occur with frightening regularity. … Read More »

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