Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Qatar Situation: Part II (August 14, 2017)

by Bill O’Grady

Last week, we discussed a short history of Qatar and its geopolitical imperatives.  This week, we will analyze the events precipitating the blockade, the blockade itself, the GCC’s demands and the impact thus far on Qatar.  We will examine how the situation has reached a stalemate and, as always, we will conclude with market ramifications.

The Precipitating Events
As we discussed last week, a combination of conditions have allowed Qatar to avoid domination by Saudi Arabia, the generally recognized leader of the GCC.  Qatar has powerful allies outside the region, friendly relations with Iran, is demographically unified and has an economy that isn’t dependent on oil, all of which have allowed Qatar to follow independent policies.  This situation has persistently angered Saudi and UAE leaders.  Beneath these national concerns are also long-standing tribal rivalries.

However, these differences have been in place for a long time.  It appears that there were three events that led the GCC, Egypt, Yemen and Sudan to react and initiate the blockade.

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Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Qatar Situation: Part I (August 7, 2017)

by Bill O’Grady

On June 6th, several members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)[1] announced a sweeping blockade of Qatar, also a member of the GCC.  The GCC members enforcing the blockade, led by Saudi Arabia, issued a list of 13 demands which Qatar rejected.

Since the blockade was implemented, Qatar has managed to replenish basic foodstuffs that were initially stripped from store shelves as households rushed to hoard necessities.  The emirate state has managed to fly in dairy cows from abroad which are now contentedly supplying milk from air conditioned barns in Qatar.

In the first part of this report, we will offer a short history of Qatar and examine its geopolitical imperatives.  Next week, in Part II, we will analyze the events precipitating the blockade, the blockade itself, the GCC’s demands and the impact thus far on Qatar.  We will examine how the situation has reached a stalemate and, as always, we will conclude with market ramifications.

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[1] Member states include Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Oman and Bahrain.