Research & News
Asset Allocation Quarterly (Third Quarter 2025)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF The likelihood of recession has declined during our three-year forecast period, as such we increased equity exposure. We anticipate below-trend economic growth due to persistent trade and fiscal policy ambiguity weighing on business investment, as well as consumer and investor confidence. Domestic equity exposure includes large and mid-caps,… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 17, 2025)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Our Comment today opens with a few words on President Trump’s apparent readiness to fire Federal Reserve Chair Powell. We next review several other international and US developments with the potential to affect the financial markets today, including new measures to protect… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 16, 2025)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Good morning! The market remains squarely focused on the latest earnings reports as we navigate through this busy season. Today’s Comment will highlight where the effects of tariffs are becoming more apparent in the inflation data, provide updates on ongoing trade discussions,… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 15, 2025)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Our Comment today opens with further evidence that President Trump has soured on Russia and President Putin, creating a risk of greater US-Russia tensions. We next review several other international and US developments with the potential to affect the financial markets today,… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Mid-Year Geopolitical Outlook: Searching for the Endgames (July 14, 2025)
by the Confluence Macroeconomic Team | PDF As the first half of 2025 draws to a close, we typically update our geopolitical outlook for the remainder of the year. This report is less a series of predictions as it is a list of potential geopolitical issues that we believe will dominate the international landscape for… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 14, 2025)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Our Comment today opens with a discussion of how a key Pentagon official is roiling relations between the US and its allies. We next review several other international and US developments with the potential to affect the financial markets today, including President… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 11, 2025)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Good morning! The market is focused squarely on new tariff developments. Today’s Comment will give our thoughts on President Trump’s latest trade threats. We’ll also explain the escalating US stance on Russia, focusing on the proposed “Sanctioning Russia Act of 2025.” The… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 10, 2025)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Good morning! The market is focused on the latest trade updates. Today’s Comment will dive into the newly released Federal Reserve meeting minutes. We’ll also explore what Nvidia’s impressive surge reveals about the increasing influence of technology on equity performance. Plus, we’ll… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 9, 2025)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Good morning! Markets are actively assessing the latest trade developments. Today’s Comment will delve into the president’s evolving trade strategy, particularly as he considers new tariffs. We’ll also examine the reasons behind calls for Fed Chair Powell’s resignation and other key market-moving… Read More »