Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Great AI Race: A Sputnik Moment for the 21st Century (September 15, 2025)
by Thomas Wash | PDF On his first full day in office, President Trump convened a group of prominent tech leaders in what he characterized as an effort to secure the United States’ technological future. This meeting launched the largest artificial intelligence infrastructure initiative in US history, named Stargate Project. The strategy forged a major… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Tariff Trilemma: The Three Rs Driving US Trade Policy (August 25, 2025)
by Thomas Wash | PDF Not all tariffs are created equal. Throughout the history of the United States, tariffs have been employed to achieve three primary objectives: (1) to pressure other governments into lowering their own trade barriers, (2) to generate revenue, and (3) to protect domestic industries. While ideally these goals would be achieved… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Update on US and China Defense Spending (August 11, 2025)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF In our Mid-Year Geopolitical Outlook, we reminded investors that President Trump’s import tariffs aren’t the only issue between the United States and China, despite the media frenzy surrounding them so far this year. We warned that even as the trade dispute persists, China is continuing to press for geopolitical… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Implications of the Israel-Iran Conflict (July 28, 2025)
by Daniel Ortwerth, CFA | PDF During the night of June 13, an already unsettled Middle East was shocked to a new level of unrest when bombs from an Israeli airstrike rained down on Iran’s key nuclear and military facilities. In what proved to be the opening salvo of a 12-Day War, which included the… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Mid-Year Geopolitical Outlook: Searching for the Endgames (July 14, 2025)
by the Confluence Macroeconomic Team | PDF As the first half of 2025 draws to a close, we typically update our geopolitical outlook for the remainder of the year. This report is less a series of predictions as it is a list of potential geopolitical issues that we believe will dominate the international landscape for… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Introducing Friedrich Merz, Chancellor of Germany (June 23, 2025)
by Daniel Ortwerth, CFA | PDF The last year has witnessed an extraordinary series of events in German politics. A chancellor failed a no-confidence vote. A parliament collapsed. The subsequent parliamentary election, which typically happens on a five-year cycle, was moved forward by five months. In that election, Germany’s far-right party surged to a second-place… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – NATO’s Baltic Vulnerability: Implications for Europe (June 9, 2025)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF When Sweden and Finland finally joined the North Atlantic Treaty Organization in 2024, the alliance gained important new territory and military capabilities on its northeastern flank. However, the expansion hasn’t necessarily been enough to fully deter potential Russian aggression against NATO in that theater. Indeed, NATO’s expansion has prompted… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Why Greenland Matters (May 27, 2025)
by Daniel Ortwerth, CFA | PDF Shortly after he became president again in January, Donald Trump surprised the world with statements about buying or annexing Greenland, by force if necessary. In early May, he reiterated this position, saying Greenland was needed for national security. Trump had initially proposed acquiring Greenland in his first term, but… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Update on the US-China Military Balance of Power (May 12, 2025)
by Daniel Ortwerth, CFA | PDF In early 2021, we published a series of reports assessing the overall balance of power between the United States and China in military, economic, and diplomatic terms. In early 2023, we provided an update to our analysis. The current report is the next in what we intend to be… Read More »