Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – US Foreign Policy: Comparing the New vs. the Old (February 9, 2026)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF In our Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report from January 26, we posited that the United States under the new administration has adopted a foreign policy quite distinct from that of the previous eight decades. We showed how the new US policy is a type of neo-imperialism with elements of neo-colonialism. We… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Blocs, Spheres, Empires, and Colonies (January 26, 2026)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF We at Confluence have long tracked how voters in the United States are increasingly recoiling at the costs of global hegemony, i.e., the US’s traditional role as the big, dominant country that provides international security, order, and the reserve currency. We’ve shown that as voters became angry at the… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Investment Implications of the New US National Security Strategy (January 12, 2026)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF As required by law, the new United States administration released its updated National Security Strategy in December 2025 (NSS 2025). As many observers have noted, the document marks a dramatic shift from the traditional NSS documents of the Cold War and the Globalization eras, not only in terms of… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Geopolitical Outlook for 2026 (December 15, 2025)
by the Confluence Macroeconomic Team | PDF (This is the final BWGR of 2025; the next report will be published on January 12, 2026.) In mid-December, we publish our geopolitical outlook for the upcoming year, as is our custom. This report is less a series of predictions as it is a list of potential new… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Meet Sanae Takaichi (November 10, 2025)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF In October 2025, Japan made history by electing its first female prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, a staunch conservative and protégé of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. Her rise to power marks a significant shift in Japan’s political landscape, with implications for foreign affairs, domestic policy, and financial markets. As… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – China’s Rising Power and the Implications for US Hegemony (October 27, 2025)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF In a recent report, we noted that the world is now transitioning away from its 30-year era of Globalization, when the United States mostly embraced its traditional role as global hegemon, i.e., the big, dominant country that provides international security, ensures relative order, and issues the reserve currency. Our… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Why the US Is Offering to Bail Out Argentina (October 13, 2025)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Argentina currently finds itself at a critical juncture. After a multi-decade period marked by economic instability, hyperinflation, and political dysfunction, the country is undergoing a radical transformation under President Javier Milei. His libertarian administration has implemented sweeping reforms aimed at stabilizing the economy, slashing government spending, and embracing cryptocurrency… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – US Influence on the Wane: New Evidence (September 29, 2025)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF World history goes through phases, not as a cycle of recurring situations but as a series of “regimes” or broad sets of trends and relationships. Each regime is complex, since it encompasses issues such as the political landscape in various countries, the dominant global approach to economic policy and… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Great AI Race: A Sputnik Moment for the 21st Century (September 15, 2025)
by Thomas Wash | PDF On his first full day in office, President Trump convened a group of prominent tech leaders in what he characterized as an effort to secure the United States’ technological future. This meeting launched the largest artificial intelligence infrastructure initiative in US history, named Stargate Project. The strategy forged a major… Read More »