Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Export Controls: Another Battle in the US-China Trade War (April 28, 2025)
by Thomas Wash | PDF Even though tariffs dominate the headlines today, export controls have emerged as an additional key weapon in the economic warfare between the United States and China. While the world’s two largest economies continue imposing tariffs on each other’s goods, they are also now strategically blocking exports of crucial technologies and… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Growing Fragility in the US Bloc (April 7, 2025)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF We at Confluence have written extensively on the end of post-Cold War globalization and the fracturing of the world into various geopolitical and economic blocs. We’ve noted that the large, rich bloc led by the United States is an attractive place for investors, but fractured supply chains and rising… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Bessent Gambit (March 24, 2025)
by Bill O’Grady | PDF Before the election, there was a sense developing that suggested a major shift in how the US manages the global financial system. This vibe was described as the “Mar-a-Lago Accord,” suggesting the changes were similar in magnitude to historic events such as the Bretton Woods Agreement, Nixon’s closure of the… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – United Arab Emirates: An Overview (March 10, 2025)
by Daniel Ortwerth, CFA | PDF The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has been steadily gaining prominence not only in the Middle East, but throughout the world. With a growing role in finance and banking and as an investment destination, it is increasingly becoming known as the “Switzerland of the Middle East.” Our recent report on… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Sanctions as an Investment Risk (February 24, 2025)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF In the last two decades, the United States has dramatically increased its use of international economic and financial sanctions to stop or deter behaviors at odds with US national security or foreign policy. The Treasury Department has estimated that the US had such sanctions on over 9,400 individuals, entities,… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Middle Eastern Stock Markets: An Overview (February 10, 2025)
by Daniel Ortwerth, CFA | PDF All the attention paid to the strong performance of United States stock markets in recent years can easily distract us from what might be happening in other markets around the world. A quick review of global stock markets reveals that one region, the Middle East, has seen its market… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Trump and the Political Economy of Alliances (January 27, 2025)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Now that President Trump is back in office, we think investors are about to see major changes in how the United States deals with the rest of the world. Trump, Treasury Secretary Bessent, and other key officials have signaled they will push to dramatically shift US policies on national… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Syrian Surprise: Implications of a Sudden Regime Change (January 13, 2025)
by Daniel Ortwerth, CFA | PDF On December 8, 2024, the world awoke to a dramatically changed order in the Middle East. Seemingly out of nowhere, the Assad family regime, which had stood for 54 years and withstood 13 years of civil war, fell to a sudden rebel onslaught. What seemingly began only 11 days… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The 2025 Geopolitical Outlook (December 16, 2024)
by the Confluence Macroeconomic Team | PDF (This is the final BWGR of 2024; the next report will be published on January 13, 2025.) Each December, we at Confluence publish our annual Geopolitical Outlook to give readers a sense of the issues that will likely dominate the international landscape in the coming year. We don’t… Read More »