Current Perspectives
The 2026 Outlook: Implications of the New Techno-Industrial State (December 11, 2025)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Mark Keller, CFA Summary of Expectations | PDF The Economy Economic Growth We expect these trends to be bolstered by stimulative fiscal and monetary policies, ongoing enthusiasm for the promises of AI, and less policy uncertainty. Recession Risk Importantly, we do not expect a recession in… Read More »
The Case for Hard Assets: An Update (First Quarter 2025)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, Bill O’Grady, Mark Keller, and Joe Hanzlik | PDF Background and Summary Secular markets are defined as long-term trends in an asset. There are both secular bear and bull markets. In most markets, there are also cyclical bull and bear markets, often tied to the business cycle, and in some markets, there… Read More »
The 2025 Outlook: A Year of Political and Policy Change (December 20, 2024)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, Daniel Ortwerth, and Mark Keller, CFA Summary of Expectations | PDF The Economy Economic Growth We expect the US economy to keep growing throughout 2025, with no recession. However, current growth is only moderate, and because of elevated real interest rates and cooling labor demand, growth could… Read More »
The 2024 Outlook: Slow-Bicycle Economy (December 18, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, Thomas Wash, Bill O’Grady, and Mark Keller, CFA Summary of Expectations | PDF The Economy Economic Growth We expect the U.S. economy to continue growing into 2024, but its momentum has been slowing, and slowing momentum will put the economy at increased risk of recession. As the growth rate continues to… Read More »
The Case for Hard Assets: An Update (June 2023)
by Bill O’Grady & Mark Keller | PDF Background and Summary Secular markets are defined as long-term trends in an asset. There are both secular bear and bull markets. In most markets, there are also cyclical bull and bear markets, often tied to the business cycle, and in some markets, there are seasonal bull and… Read More »
2023 Outlook: A Recession Year (December 21, 2022)
by Mark Keller, CFA, Bill O’Grady, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Summary of Expectations: A recession is highly probable in 2023. Our base case is a garden-variety recession. Three factors could trigger a deep recession: a. Falling nominal home prices; b. A financial crisis; c. A geopolitical event One factor that could mitigate the downturn… Read More »
2022 Outlook: Update #2 – The Tails Become Fatter (July 12, 2022)
by Bill O’Grady, Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Mark Keller, CFA | PDF In our 2022 Outlook: The Year of Fat Tails, we outlined a forecast with a higher likelihood of events outside the norm. To compensate for the unusual level of uncertainty, we promised to provide frequent updates to the forecast. This report is the… Read More »
2022 Outlook: Update #1 (February 18, 2022)
by Mark Keller, CFA, Bill O’Grady, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF In our 2022 Outlook: The Year of Fat Tails, we outlined a forecast with a higher likelihood of events outside the norm. To compensate for the unusual level of uncertainty, we promised to provide frequent updates to the forecast. This report is the… Read More »
2022 Outlook: The Year of Fat Tails (December 16, 2021)
by Mark Keller, CFA, Bill O’Grady, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Summary: We don’t expect a recession in 2022. Real GDP growth will range between 3.0% to 3.5%. Inflation remains elevated, though price pressures will likely subside in H2 2022. We expect the core PCE deflator, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, to… Read More »